2015 Season Previews: San Diego Padres

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks! 

San Diego Padres

Courtesy: MLB.com
Courtesy: MLB.com

2015 Projected Record: 84-78 (2nd in NL West, 8th in MLB)

Manager: Bud Black (617-680 in eight seasons with San Diego)

Top Three Players: OF Justin Upton (2.8), RHP James Shields (2.6), C Derek Norris (2.2)

Bounce-back Player: OF Matt Kemp

Entering his age-30 season, Kemp gets a fresh start away from Los Angeles, ready to prove that he is close to the elite producer that he was in 2011 and 2012 than the injury-plagued financial burden that he was in 2013. You can’t really argue that he was valueless in 2014, having watched his .309/.365/.606 second half eruption, which included 17 doubles and 17 home runs. If Kemp is the player that we saw down the stretch, the acquisition was a steal, even with the monies owed to the slugger.

Can Middlebrooks makde enough contact to have value? Courtesy: Getty Images
Can Middlebrooks makde enough contact to have value?
Courtesy: Getty Images

Fantasy Player to Watch: 3B Will Middlebrooks

Another addition, Middlebrooks, 26, looks to rebuild his value as he heads into the arbitration process next winter. After a powerful debut in 2012, Middlebrooks appeared to lose something, or, at least, gain a giant hole in his swing. The strikeout rate jumped to 29.9 percent in 2014, leading the Red Sox to move Xander Bogaerts to third and remove the once-promising prospect from an everyday role, which likely would have happened even if he didn’t miss nearly three months after having a finger broken by a pitch. A fresh start, a new organization, and an opportunity – those things will go a long way in allowing Middlebrooks to figure things out. Even with a tough offensive environment, Middlebrooks should have solid value, even if it comes with a .240 average, due to the power potential.

Offseason Overview: The Padres hired A.J. Preller to become their GM last August, and in his first offseason at the helm, ownership opened up the wallet like never before, allowing the 37-year-old Cornell graduate to piece together an immediate competitor. Preller traded for an entire outfield, acquiring Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Wil Myers to patrol spacious Petco Park. He added Middlebrooks at third through a deal with Boston, got a slugging catcher in Derek Norris for a solid young pitcher in Jesse Hahn in a deal with Oakland, and then signed their rotation horse when he added James Shields. Preller’s only competition for most active general manager was likely Oakland’s Billy Beane, and both of them improved their teams by taking huge risks.

The Verdict: The Padres immediately became competitors, but we will have to wait and see whether the addition of all of the right-handed power will increase the club’s ability to score runs. They have plenty of talent on the roster, and that is before we even get to the starting rotation. Shields will be the ace, but the remaining group of Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, and Ian Kennedy is a gifted compilation of powerful arms that are capable of missing a lot of bats. While so many wondered what the defense would be like with Myers in center field, with the extreme strikeout potential from the rotation, it dulls that worry a bit. The Padres are very likely to compete for a wild card spot, as, even with the huge additions, they still fall slightly short of the Dodgers in the NL West. PECOTA saw the team improving substantially from their 77 wins last season to 84 in 2015, and I can see them getting to 88 wins, as well.


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