2015 Season Previews: Boston Red Sox

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks! 

Boston Red Sox

Courtesy: MLB.com
Courtesy: MLB.com

2015 Projected Record: 87-75 (1st in AL East, 5th in MLB)

Manager: John Farrell (168-156 in two seasons with Boston, 322-326 in four seasons overall)

Top Three Players: 2B Dustin Pedroia (4.8), 3B Pablo Sandoval (3.8), OF Hanley Ramirez (3.6)

Bounce-back Player: SS Xander Bogaerts

Bogaerts will be the epitome of a post-hype sleeper after having watched him crash and burn during his age-21 season in 2014. It seems unreal that we hold players to such high expectations today – even Mike Trout hit just .220/.281/.390 in his first 135 plate appearances at the tender age of 19. Still, the Boston shortstop is someone to lookout for as we turn the page to the 2015 season. The positives: he still had 28 doubles, 12 home runs, walked in 6.6 percent of his plate appearances, and wasn’t benched to make room for Hanley Ramirez. The negatives: He hit just .153/.198/.221 over 254 plate appearances from June 1 through August 31. After finishing the season with a .313/.317/.490 in September, so, perhaps, that is a sign of things to come? Get back on board with Bogaerts.

Betts is a sure bet for your fantasy team Courtesy: Boston.com
Betts is a sure bet for your fantasy team
Courtesy: Boston.com

Fantasy Player to Watch: INF/OF Mookie Betts

Andrew McCutchen, Hanley Ramirez, and Derek Jeter…those are the recent comparisons that Betts received in a recent article, which is enough to stop most fans in their tracks and mock whoever said it, but those comparisons came from the mouths of veterans David Ortiz, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez, himself. Betts is an extremely athletic, versatile player, who will break camp and find a way to get 500 plate appearances while playing all over the field, but mostly center field. He may be listed at just 5’9″, 155 pounds, but he could eclipse 10 bombs and 30 stolen bases for the next several seasons, while showing impressive plate discipline. After playing in 52 games in his age-21 season and posting an .812 OPS over 213 plate appearances, he’ll establish himself as a “must-own” in fantasy leagues in his first full season in 2015.

Offseason Overview: The Red Sox were busy filling up their rotation in trades, acquiring Wade Miley from Arizona (for Rubby De La Rosa and Allan Webster) and Rick Porcello from Detroit (for Yoenis Cespedes). Beyond the offseason trades, Ben Cherington and company opened the checkbook, signing Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval through free agency, while continuing in the pursuit of international free agents by dropping $31.5 million (plus an additional $31.5 million in fines) on 19-year-old Cuban sensation Yoan Moncada. While Moncada will head to the minors, it will only be a matter of time before he makes an impact, as he’ll head to High-A to start his career. He joins fellow Cuban Rusney Castillo, who signed a seven-year, $72.5 million deal, within the Boston organization.

The Verdict: After dealing Jon Lester to Oakland and being unable to come up with a deal with Philadelphia for Cole Hamels, the Red Sox head into the 2015 season with a group of mid-rotation arms in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Clay Buchholz isn’t what you’d call an “ace”, even if you’re dumb enough to think that he can duplicate the 16 starts he had in 2013. If he stays healthy, a big “if” since Boston should be ecstatic to get 30 starts and 190 innings out of him, he’ll just be serviceable. Miley can give Boston innings, but the 3.94 ERA and 1.36 WHIP show that he may have issues missing bats and keeping base runners at bay when you consider those numbers came while pitching in the NL West, where Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego’s stadiums kill baseballs – he likely won’t be so lucky facing New York, Toronto, and Baltimore’s sluggers. Porcello could be very good with a strong defense behind him, but, with this pitching staff, the Red Sox are going to need to outscore their opponents…something they should be able to do thanks to their collection of talented bats. This team is extremely deep offensively, but the pitching is the key here. Boston should win 90 to 93 game, but they’ll need a lot of luck out of that rotation. For that reason, I see Johnny Cueto in the Boston rotation, leading them to the title down the stretch.

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