Diamondbacks Fans: Give Thanks for Hazen

New Arizona VP and GM, Mike Hazen Courtesy: Fox Sports
New Arizona VP and GM, Mike Hazen
Courtesy: Fox Sports

Over the last several years, the Arizona Diamondbacks have had several people involved in running the organization into the ground. They’ve been through managers, having seen Kirk Gibson fired in 2014, Alan Trammell as interim, Chip Hale hired and fired, and, now, having first-year manager Torey Lovullo starting the 2017 season. The instability for this organization doesn’t just start and finish on the field, though. Since 2010, we’ve seen Josh Byrnes, Jerry DiPoto (interim), Kevin Towers, Dave Stewart, and newly-hired Mike Hazen, formerly with the Boston Red Sox, in the general manager role. After winning the 2011 NL West, the Diamondbacks have failed to finish over .500, though they have finished right at .500 twice during that span.

Still, all of the changes at the top have played a major role in the struggles of the organization. No one seemed to know which direction the club was actually heading. About three years ago, I wrote about Towers and his strange deals. When he dealt Justin Upton, Trevor Bauer (along with Bryan Shaw and Matt Albers), and Tyler Skaggs for Mark Trumbo, Didi Gregorius, Martin Prado, Randall Delgado, and a slew of fringy minor leaguers, the team never really cashed-in on anything, and most of those players are now long-gone from the organization or aren’t a large part of their future – a strange concept for a team that is still rebuilding

Last night, Hazen put his stamp on where this club is heading with a “blockbuster” (if you’d call it that), by dealing Jean Segura (the 22nd most valuable position player in baseball, based on WAR), Zac Curtis, and Mitch Haniger  to the Seattle Mariners for Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte.

Segura is on to his 4th organization Courtesy: azsnakepit.com
Segura is on to his 4th organization
Courtesy: azsnakepit.com

Segura, 27 on Opening Day, will be replaced at shortstop by Marte, who was rushed to the majors by Seattle at the age of 21 in 2015 out of desperation to fill their shortstop hole with just 377 at bats above AA. He’ll play the 2017 season at the age of 23 and he won’t be arbitration-eligible until after the 2018 season. Segura had much more pop in his bat than Marte ever will, but Marte puts the ball in play and has solid speed, which is basically what Segura was in 2014 and 2015 before he had his second breakout season – if that is a thing – in 2016.

Hazen saved some money at shortstop, while acquiring Walker, a potential ace, for his pitching staff. Walker, long labeled full of potential, could make this deal look silly for Seattle if he actually reaches or fulfills that potential; however, we’ve been waiting on that for a few years now, even though Walker will be just 24 on Opening Day. If he can overcome injuries and become more consistent, a familiar statement for young pitchers, this is an easy win for the Diamondbacks, and Mike Hazen has already proven himself worthy of the job. If it crashes and burns, who cares? The Diamondbacks went 69-93 while Segura was a star in 2016, so it was worth the gamble.

Can Walker reach his potential in Arizona? Courtesy: Seattle Times
Can Walker reach his potential in Arizona?
Courtesy: Seattle Times

Mike Hazen had a lot more money to work with in his time with the Boston Red Sox. He may need to be a little more creative in landing talent in the desert, but the 40-year-old has a lot of respect in the game and will continue to put the Diamondbacks in a position to be successful, as long as ownership gives him the time necessary to turn it all around.

Be thankful, Diamondback fans. Mike Hazen finally has a plan for your team.

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Fantasy Fix for 6/15: Who to Target and Avoid

As we get further into the season, the sample sizes of players has become a little more realistic. For those who say that players will correct themselves and hit “to the back of the baseball card.” That is the case for some players, while others actually breakout or stay in funks all season. Based on the “norms” of players, this should help you decide who to trade or sell high, who to target, and who to avoid like the plague.

Who to Target

Frazier has struggled, but he is still mashing and is a player to target.
Frazier has struggled, but he is still mashing and is a player to target. Courtesy: CBS Sports

Todd Frazier, 3B, Chicago White Sox

Frazier is sporting a pretty dreadful .206/.301/.466 line over 272 plate appearances. His average is driven down by his .185 BABIP, worst among qualified batters in MLB. If you’ve owned Frazier before, you know that the batting average isn’t what makes him valuable, but that number should certainly increase over the rest of the season, especially as Chicago heats up and the ball flies out of U.S. Cellular. Additionally, Frazier’s 19 bombs are 2nd in MLB and he has a .261 ISO and the highest walk rate of his career (11.4%). It should be a good summer for the Toddfather.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

You should have probably targeted Arenado at the top of your draft, but, if you can deal for him, you need to find a way to get him on your team. He is tied for most homers in baseball after his shot on Wednesday afternoon and the 25-year-old could see additional growth over his 42 home run/130-RBI 2015 season. How is that possible? Well, his .260 BABIP is bound to increase closer to his career .287, and Arenado is striking out at the lowest rate of his career (10.5%) and walking at the highest rate of his career (10.5%). With Carlos Gonzalez slugging alongside him, at least until the trade deadline, the sky continues to be the limit for this young star.

Wacha looks pumped about being on this list. Courtesy: Washington Times
Wacha looks pumped about being on this list.
Courtesy: Washington Times

Michael Wacha, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Wacha may fly under the radar because he won’t strikeout 200 batters per season in fantasy leagues, but he will win games (#killthewin) and post solid ERA and WHIP numbers. At least, that has been the case prior to this season. There’s nothing to say that he can’t get back on track. With a 2-6 record, 4.91 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, Wacha has many owners frustrated. However, his 3.48 FIP says that he can get things back on track. The fact that he plays on a perennial contender may help, but the Cardinals aren’t really the class of the NL Central any longer with the Cubs 9.5 games up going into Wednesday’s games. Grab Wacha from someone who is selling low and reap the benefits of reading my website. Thank me later.

Dallas Keuchel, LHP, Houston Astros

Last season’s AL Cy Young winner has struggled thus far, going 3-9 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He leads MLB in hits allowed and earned runs. It’s hard to say that he can improve on that line, but it appears that he may be able to do so. He does have a 3.82 FIP and he is still striking out a little over eight per nine innings; however, he’ll need to get his walks down in order for his overall numbers to improve. The Astros are still very good, despite their 31-35 record, and you don’t win 20 games and a Cy Young without some skills. Trust in his beard and abilities.

Players to Avoid

Call me a #hater if you want, but that BABIP makes Marte someone I wouldn't trust. Courtesy: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Call me a #hater if you want, but that BABIP makes Marte someone I wouldn’t trust.
Courtesy: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Marte is having an excellent season, hitting a robust .335/.376/.502, with 26 extra-base hits and 19 stolen bases. At the age of 27, he is in the midst of the “Bill James prime” and has always been a gifted athlete; however, he hasn’t always been this lucky. Marte has a .416 BABIP, 56 points higher than his already impressive .360 career BABIP. He could certainly be “breaking out”, but this type of elevated statistic isn’t easy to keep up with all season. If you’re in a one-year re-draft, you may want to cash him in at this peak value.

Doug Fister, RHP, Houston Astros

Fister’s success is a feel-good story after battling through injuries and ineffectiveness in 2015 for the Nationals. The 32-year-old has a 7-3 record to go along with his 3.26 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He’s back to his old self, like when he won 30 games over the 2013 and 2014 seasons, right? Wrong. His 4.75 FIP, 81.8 left on base percentage, .254 BABIP allowed, and career worst walk rate, scream regression. He has proven peripherals wrong for a number of years, due to his low strikeout totals, but he would need to prove it for another month before I’m buying. If you have him, sell high.

Walker has so much potential, but that is all that he has right now. Courtesy: Seattle Times
Walker has so much potential, but that is all that he has right now.
Courtesy: Seattle Times

Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners

Walker still has a lot of prospect hype surrounding him, but, at some point, the results need to catch up to that potential. To this point, the 3.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP have hidden some ugly numbers for the 23-year-old. The 4.61 FIP is what screams regression, while the 18.4% FB:HR rate is terrifying as we enter the warmer months, especially when you consider the teams in the AL West and the way the ball flies out of those parks in the summer. Over his last seven starts, Walker is 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, allowing a whopping 11 homers in 38.2 innings. His solid overall numbers are the result of his first six starts – when he was 2-2 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, which he allowed just three home runs over 32 innings. He may be injured or the league made an adjustment. Either way, Walker isn’t as good as his statistics show right now – unless you can store him on your bench while he figures it out – if he ever does.

Shocking Starts to 2016

Mazara is a monster - and he will only get better! 
Courtesy: Sporting News

With a little over a month of the season underway, there are several players at the top of the statistical leaderboards that would have been about as shocking as Leicester City winning the English Premier League, which I know absolutely nothing about, but it is apparently a big deal for soccer fans. For baseball fans, some of the players who have had incredible starts to the season are as recognizable as Leicester City and English Premier League. Get to know some players who have impressed in 2016!

Aledmys Diaz, SS, St. Louis Cardinals

Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2016 25 STL 25 85 80 20 31 8 1 5 14 1 5 7 .388 .424 .700 1.124 56
1 Yr 25 85 80 20 31 8 1 5 14 1 5 7 .388 .424 .700 1.124 56
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/4/2016.
Diaz
Diaz – another example of the Cardinal way? Courtesy: Minor League Ball

Diaz has impressed in his first taste of the majors. It only took a torn thumb ligament in the left hand of Jhonny Peralta for the 25-year-old Cuban to get an opportunity. All that Diaz has done is lead MLB in OPS to this point. Diaz was better known for his glove when he was signed, and his results, all of 586 minor league at-bats, reiterated that. His .779 OPS in the minors screams that his production to this point will come back to earth; however, with Kolten Wong struggling and Peralta coming back at the beginning of June, Diaz could maintain enough playing time to continue to be productive, even if it isn’t at the incredibly high level that he has reached this season.

Chris Carter, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2016 29 MIL 25 101 87 17 25 10 0 9 21 0 11 29 .287 .356 .713 1.069 62
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/4/2016.

The Astros had Jon Singleton ready to go this spring, only to see him be really awful, resulting in his demotion to Triple-A. Of course, they didn’t have Carter any longer, as they didn’t tender him a contract. Now, Tyler White and Marwin Gonzalez top the depth charts for the Astros, as Carter has seen an impressive resurgence of his career with the Brewers. A one-year, $2.5 million deal looks like an absolute steal right now for Milwaukee, while this type of production from Carter may have helped Houston be where they were last season, rather than last place in the American League West; however, there’s no guarantee that he would be hitting at the levels that he is currently. He is just two years removed from a 37 homer season (albeit, with a .227 average).

Vincent Velasquez, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

Year Age Tm W L W-L% ERA G CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
2016 24 PHI 4 1 .800 1.44 5 1 1 31.1 18 8 5 2 10 39 296 2.45 0.894 5.2 2.9 11.2 3.90
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/4/2016.
Velasquez: Dominating for the Phillies Courtesy: phillymag.com
Velasquez: Dominating for the Phillies
Courtesy: phillymag.com

Velasquez was the prize of the trade that sent Ken Giles to the Astros, unless you think Mark Appel was that prize, and the 23-year-old has been as electric as his minor league numbers looked. Over 296.2 minor league innings, Velasquez averaged 10.7 K:9. This season, he has done wonderful things for Philadelphia. Velasquez has positioned himself as an anchor to a staff on the rebuild. After starting 16-11, the 100 loss season that PECOTA projected for the Phillies could be difficult to attain. Magically, Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s rebuild has done wonderfully to this point, even as he handles the first base coaching box for the Boston Red Sox.

Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners

Year Age Lg W L W-L% ERA G IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 BB9 SO9
2016 23 AL 2 1 .667 1.80 5 30.0 28 8 6 1 3 29 198 2.06 1.033 8.4 0.9 8.7
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/4/2016.

Walker only had one good month in 2015 (July), and the rest of his season was what many young pitchers deal with – a roller coaster. The start of the 2016 season, however, has been a whole different story. All of those athletic-talented-future-dominant-starter labels that have been stuck to Walker seem somewhat reasonable now. In fact, they may not be strong enough labels. Walker is leading the AL in FIP, and his incredible walk rate screams “ACE”. He is putting it all together this season. Seattle is currently in first place, and with Felix Hernandez and Walker at the top of the rotation, the Mariners could be downright scary in a playoff.

Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers

Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB
2016 21 TEX 20 88 77 11 25 2 0 3 9 0 7 15 .325 .375 .468 .843 131 36
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/4/2016.
Mazara is a monster - and he will only get better!  Courtesy: Sporting News
Mazara is a monster – and he will only get better!
Courtesy: Sporting News

The Rangers seem to have a supply of talented players who rise up and become productive from their minor league system. What is most interesting about how things work out, however, is that players who are “can’t-miss” don’t seem to get a true opportunity with Texas. First, Jurickson Profar lost second base to Rougned Odor, and, now, it looks like Joey Gallo may have lost his opportunity to Mazara, who seems to have a stranglehold on the club’s right field job after a tremendous start to his major league career. The 6’4″ outfielder, who just turned 21 in April, has a body that could continue to fill out, and potential that seems about as limitless as any young player in baseball. While solid production from Mazara was to be expected, it certainly wasn’t expected this soon in his career.

Who did I miss? Who has been the most surprising player in baseball?

2015 Season Previews: Seattle Mariners

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks!

Seattle Mariners

Courtesy: MLB.com
Courtesy: MLB.com

2015 Projected Record: 87-75 (2nd in AL West, 6th in MLB)

Manager: Lloyd McClendon (87-75 in one season with Seattle, 423-521 in six seasons overall)

Top Three Players: 2B Robinson Cano (5.1), RHP Felix Hernandez (4.7), 3B Kyle Seager (4.1)

Bounce-back Player: LHP James Paxton

Paxton missed 102 games last season with a shoulder strain, but, upon returning, he was lights out, posting a 3.19 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 62 innings and 11 starts, including the stinker in Toronto on 9/22 (2.2 IP, 9 R, 8 ER). He had the same injury that Reds RHP Johnny Cueto had in 2013, but Cueto came back to toss a career-high 243.2 innings in 2014 – so, this shouldn’t hold Paxton back from taking off again. Still, he has made only 17 starts in his brief career, and he’ll rebound from his injury-plaged 2014 and become the No.2 option behind Felix Hernandez in the Mariners’ rotation.

Zunino is much better than that .199 average, and you'll LOVE the power. Courtesy: mlbtraderumors.com
Zunino is much better than that .199 average, and you’ll LOVE the power.
Courtesy: mlbtraderumors.com

Fantasy Player to Watch: C Mike Zunino

Zunino should have most people’s eyes already thanks to his 22 home runs in 2014, but many will be terrified of his .199/.254/.404 line and 33.2 percent strikeout rate. Once upon a time, there was a guy who hit. 227 with 24 home runs and 56 RBI…that was the 2012-version of Mike Napoli, and, though Napoli took a few more pitches than Zunino has in his brief career, we need to remember that this kid will still be just 24 on Opening Day. Zunino is slick with the glove behind the plate and can mash, so he’ll carve out a nice, long career. Get on board and watch him improve as he gains more big league experience.

Offseason Overview: The Mariners had their third winning season since 2004 last year, and they had very little to do to keep things intact for another run, but they did make a few changes. The signed Nelson Cruz, fresh off of his 40-homer outburst in Baltimore, to fill their DH spot with a much-needed, right-handed power hitter. Seattle acquired Seth Smith from San Diego for power-armed, results-deficient Brandon Maurer, and they signed Rickie Weeks to become a super-utility type of player, likely to see a lot of outfield at-bats for the Mariners. The rotation added depth when J.A. Happ was acquired from Toronto for OF Michael Saunders. Several solid moves to improve the roster and the quality of depth, as Seattle tries to get over the hump and make their first World Series in franchise history.

The Verdict: Seattle made some smart decisions this winter. They gave Cruz a four-year, $57 million deal, which could be a gamble given his age (34 on Opening Day), but he was the top offensive talent available on the free agent market for the team’s need. He’ll fit in nicely with Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano in the middle of the order. The rotation is still strong, as Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma provide All-Star level production while young arms like Paxton and Taijuan Walker round out the rotation with Happ (if he didn’t pitch himself out of a rotation spot). The Mariners are primed to strike, especially with a Josh Hamilton-less Angels club that has far more question marks than Seattle does heading into the season. While PECOTA was generous with a duplication of the 2014 record, it wasn’t generous enough. Seattle will win 90 or more games in 2015.

2014 MLB Top Prospects: Final Revision

Buxton

1. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins; 12/18/1993

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2012 18 2 Lgs Rk 48 189 165 33 41 10 4 5 20 11 19 41 .248 .344 .448 .792 74
2013 19 2 Lgs A-A+ 125 574 488 109 163 19 18 12 77 55 76 105 .334 .424 .520 .944 254
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Buxton is the minor league version of Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout. He has tools across the board and could continue to move quickly, likely reaching Target Field by the end of the 2014 season. While he isn’t the pure hitter that Taveras could be, Buxton has the skill set that will fill stadiums and force Minnesota into contention…if they could get some solid pitching.

2. Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B, Boston Red Sox; 10/1/1992

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2010 17 DOSL FRk 63 280 239 39 75 7 5 3 42 4 30 37 .314 .396 .423 .819 101
2011 18 SALL A 72 296 265 38 69 14 2 16 45 1 25 71 .260 .324 .509 .834 135
2012 19 2 Lgs A+-AA 127 532 476 71 146 37 3 20 81 5 44 106 .307 .373 .523 .896 249
2013 20 2 Lgs AAA-AA 116 515 444 72 132 23 6 15 67 7 63 95 .297 .388 .477 .865 212
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.
Year Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB
2013 BOS AL 18 50 44 7 11 2 0 1 5 1 5 13 .250 .320 .364 .684 88 16
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Bogaerts forced himself into the Red Sox immediate plans and has played a major role for the Sox in the 2013 postseason. The young infielder could take the everyday job at short in 2014 with Stephen Drew reaching free agency, and his production up the middle could make him one of the top fantasy shortstops this side of Troy Tulowitzki.

Courtesy: stlouiscardinalsbaseball.com
Courtesy: stlouiscardinalsbaseball.com

3. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals; 6/19/1992

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2009 17 DOSL FRk 65 272 237 35 61 13 8 1 42 9 28 36 .257 .338 .392 .731 93
2010 18 2 Lgs Rk 60 260 241 40 73 14 3 8 45 9 13 46 .303 .342 .485 .828 117
2011 19 MIDW A 78 347 308 52 119 27 5 8 62 1 32 52 .386 .444 .584 1.028 180
2012 20 TL AA 124 531 477 83 153 37 7 23 94 10 42 56 .321 .380 .572 .953 273
2013 21 2 Lgs AAA-Rk 47 188 174 25 54 13 0 5 32 5 10 22 .310 .348 .471 .819 82
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Taveras is the best pure hitter in the minors, but he needs to stay on the field to show his true abilities. With Carlos Beltran headed towards free agency, it will be interesting to see how the Cardinals handle Taveras going into the 2014 season. With Matt Adams producing solid numbers in a limited role, it could force Allen Craig to the outfield, which would force Taveras to Triple-A or to center field in place of Jon Jay. Wherever he is, expect big things.

4. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins; 5/11/1993

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2010 17 2 Lgs Rk-FRk 61 241 212 34 65 16 1 7 29 4 24 60 .307 .379 .491 .870 104
2011 18 APPY Rk 66 293 267 58 78 18 7 20 59 5 23 77 .292 .352 .637 .988 170
2012 19 MIDW A 129 553 457 75 118 28 4 28 100 8 80 144 .258 .373 .521 .893 238
2013 20 2 Lgs AA-A+ 123 519 439 86 123 30 5 35 103 11 65 142 .280 .382 .610 .992 268
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Sano has amazing power and he has maintained his power production as he has climbed the minor league ladder. With Sano and Buxton, the Twins have a new duo that will likely outproduce the numbers that Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer put up in their prime, and with Sano having hit 90 home runs before his 21st birthday in the minors, it will be very hard for the offensive-starved Twins to wait for his massive power ability.

Walker

5. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners; 8/13/1992

Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 17 ARIZ Rk 1 1 1.29 4 0 0 7.0 2 3 1 0 3 9 0.714 2.6 11.6 3.00
2011 18 MIDW A 6 5 2.89 18 1 0 96.2 69 33 31 4 39 113 1.117 6.4 10.5 2.90
2012 19 SOUL AA 7 10 4.69 25 0 0 126.2 124 70 66 12 50 118 1.374 8.8 8.4 2.36
2013 20 2 Lgs AA-AAA 9 10 2.93 25 0 0 141.1 112 56 46 11 57 160 1.196 7.1 10.2 2.81
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.
Year Tm Lg W L ERA G CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2013 SEA AL 1 0 3.60 3 0 0 15.0 11 7 6 0 4 12 1.000 6.6 7.2 3.00
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Walker is a freakishly gifted athlete as a pitcher, and if he can maintain consistency in repeating his mechanics and release, he could supplant Felix Hernandez as the Mariners’ No.1 starter at some point over the next few seasons. He has tremendous stuff and once he gains a better understanding of how to pitch with it, he will soar. He has very little left to prove in Tacoma and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him start the season with Seattle, especially after the Mariners seem all-in after signing Robinson Cano. Keep in mind, Walker has put up these solid numbers after becoming a pitcher in his senior year of high school, which was a little over three years ago now.

6. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks; 8/10/1992

Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2011 18 PION Rk 0 0 0.00 2 0 0 2.0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0.500 4.5 18.0
2012 19 MIDW A 12 6 3.84 27 0 0 136.0 87 64 58 6 84 152 1.257 5.8 10.1 1.81
2013 20 2 Lgs AA-A+ 14 5 1.84 26 2 0 152.0 115 40 31 6 69 162 1.211 6.8 9.6 2.35
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

A lot of Bradley’s success had to do with his ability to throw more strikes. He went from walking 5.5 per nine in 2012 to 4.1 in 2013, and if he maintains that type of growth in the upper minors, he’ll be ready for Chase Field in no time. With the stuff that he has, you’d like to see him allow fewer base runners, but there was a time that I doubted Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw for the same reasons. I won’t be doing that again.

7. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros; 9/22/1994

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2012 17 2 Lgs Rk 50 204 190 28 49 14 2 3 12 6 12 44 .258 .305 .400 .705 76
2013 18 MIDW A 117 519 450 73 144 33 3 9 86 10 58 83 .320 .405 .467 .872 210
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Correa has a great skill-set, one that prompted a lot of Alex Rodriguez comparisons when he was the No.1 overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft. Unfortunately, the comparisons may never stop for Correa, who may have to be linked to Buxton, who was taken No.2 overall in the 2012 Draft, over the rest of his career. Fortunately for Correa, he is also capable of All-Star level production, so this won’t become a Sam Bowie versus Michael Jordan issue for the Houston Astros. Correa is likely in for an absolutely incredible breakout in 2014 as the doubles head over the wall and he continues to make solid adjustments at the plate. Like Bogaerts, he could be as elite as they come at shortstop, likely arriving by mid-2015.

Baez

8. Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs; 12/1/1992

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2011 18 2 Lgs Rk-A- 5 18 18 2 5 2 0 0 1 2 0 4 .278 .278 .389 .667 7
2012 19 2 Lgs A-A+ 80 321 293 50 86 13 6 16 46 24 14 69 .294 .346 .543 .888 159
2013 20 2 Lgs A+-AA 130 577 517 98 146 34 4 37 111 20 40 147 .282 .341 .578 .920 299
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Swinging hard and quick, Baez unravels his coiled body and creates impressive power…which comes with impressive strikeout totals, as well. With Starlin Castro signed long-term, Baez is going to likely be moved off of shortstop, but he has the stick to play third or an outfield corner. The Cubs are aggressive in how they handle their prospects, but we’ll have to see if the Theo Epstein regime is going to be wise with the cost-efficiency and service-time issues that could arise by allowing Baez to get some time in at Wrigley in 2014. He could force their hand, though.

9. Addison Russell, SS, Oakland Athletics; 1/23/1994

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2012 18 3 Lgs Rk-A-A- 55 244 217 46 80 10 9 7 45 16 23 48 .369 .432 .594 1.027 129
2013 19 2 Lgs A+-AAA 110 517 442 86 119 29 10 17 60 21 61 125 .269 .369 .495 .865 219
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

The A’s were SUPER aggressive with Russell in 2013, starting the season with the California League (high-A) affiliate after getting just 58 at-bats for the club’s low-A squad in 2012 and getting all of 217 at-bats in his first professional season. He did so well in 2013 that he was bumped to Triple-A to assist with Sacramento’s playoff push, and while he was over-matched, it shows just how highly Oakland thinks of him. He may get lost in the dynamic shortstop shuffle, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Russell in the majors first, producing solid overall numbers and bringing life to the Oakland lineup.

10. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians; 11/14/1993

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2011 17 NYPL A- 5 20 19 4 6 0 0 0 2 1 1 5 .316 .350 .316 .666 6
2012 18 MIDW A 122 567 490 83 126 24 3 6 42 27 61 78 .257 .352 .355 .707 174
2013 19 2 Lgs A+-AA 104 464 403 65 122 22 7 2 34 25 49 46 .303 .380 .407 .787 164
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Lindor will have tremendous value for the Indians with his above-average defensive skills, but it won’t stop there. While Lindor won’t be a middle-of-the-order talent like Bogaerts and Correa, he has the skill-set to be a very effective leadoff hitter, while having the contact skills to be a great No.2 hitter, setting the table for Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana, likely by mid-2014.

11. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Baltimore Orioles; 1/6/1991

Year Age Lg W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2013 22 AL 3 5 5.66 20 5 0 0 47.2 51 30 30 8 13 49 1.343 9.6 2.5 9.3 3.77
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/2/2014.
Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G GF SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2012 21 2 Lgs A+-A- 0 1 3.60 5 0 0 15.0 11 6 6 3 1 13 0.800 6.6 0.6 7.8 13.00
2013 22 2 Lgs AA-AAA 3 6 3.51 16 1 0 82.0 80 37 32 4 14 82 1.146 8.8 1.5 9.0 5.86
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/2/2014.

Gausman wasn’t on my original list because I assumed that he had been rostered by the O’s for too long to still qualify; however, you know what happens when you assume…Gausman is an absolute monster, capable of hitting triple-digits while working 95-98 with his fastball. His slider is an out pitch, as are the two variations of his changeup. Due to being a college arm with such electric stuff, Gausman could easily receive comps to Justin Verlander, and while those are high expectations, it wouldn’t be hard to envision that type of production if everything clicks. As is, he’s quite capable of being the top pitcher from this list.

12. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets; 8/29/1992

Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G GF SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 17 GULF Rk 0 1 2.70 5 0 0 13.1 11 7 4 0 4 6 1.125 7.4 4.0 1.50
2011 18 3 Lgs Rk-A–A 5 2 1.83 13 1 0 59.0 46 14 12 1 18 68 1.085 7.0 10.4 3.78
2012 19 MIDW A 8 5 2.60 27 2 0 103.2 81 41 30 3 31 122 1.080 7.0 10.6 3.94
2013 20 2 Lgs A+-AA 9 4 3.06 23 0 0 117.2 107 48 40 11 28 133 1.147 8.2 10.2 4.75
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

The stuff is off the charts, at least the fastball, and with further development of his secondary stuff, Syndergaard will be a tremendous No.2 starter for the Mets. The haul from the R.A. Dickey trade certainly took a major bump upwards when Syndergaard showed such drastic improvement, and after reaching Double-A in 2013 and the injury to Harvey, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the tall right-hander get a shot before the All-Star break in 2014.

13. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds; 2/24/1993

Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2012 19 2 Lgs A-Rk 3 4 3.18 15 0 0 65.0 54 34 23 6 23 72 1.185 7.5 10.0 3.13
2013 20 3 Lgs A-A+-AA 7 7 2.99 22 0 0 114.1 92 49 38 10 35 136 1.111 7.2 10.7 3.89
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Stephenson’s numbers were absurd in 2013. I saw a start in Dayton that he looked like he was toying with the opposition, but that seems to be the norm for him. He has a tremendous fastball, touching triple-digits several times during the 2013 campaign, and he earned promotions (a quick one from the pitching-deadly California League) by succeeding. The Reds will likely slow down the process and keep him in Double-A most of the 2014 season, but he could be a reliable starter by 2015, just in time for the possible loss of Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto.

14. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates; 11/18/1991

Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2011 19 SALL A 2 3 3.98 23 0 0 92.2 89 45 41 9 22 97 1.198 8.6 9.4 4.41
2012 20 2 Lgs A+-AA 9 8 3.55 26 2 0 142.0 120 60 56 10 38 116 1.113 7.6 7.4 3.05
2013 21 2 Lgs AA-AAA 5 10 3.73 26 0 0 147.1 143 70 61 9 52 143 1.324 8.7 8.7 2.75
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Gerrit Cole has taken the reigns from Taillon as the Pirates’ No.1 starter, but he does have the skills to help guide Cole and the Bucs to another postseason appearance in 2013, likely joining the rotation mid-season like Cole and developing the final touches on his stuff at the major league level. Taillon doesn’t look to have the ceiling that Cole does, but that doesn’t mean that he isn’t special. The 2013 season was a bit disappointing statistically, so the 2014 season will go a long way in determining the long-term outlook on this young man.

15. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates; 9/14/1991

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2009 17 DOSL FRk 63 261 221 34 59 8 6 0 24 12 33 50 .267 .370 .357 .727 79
2010 18 GULF Rk 53 200 188 21 38 5 1 3 23 19 9 41 .202 .245 .287 .532 54
2011 19 2 Lgs Rk-A- 51 213 179 34 41 4 4 3 35 18 24 35 .229 .322 .346 .669 62
2012 20 SALL A 116 485 437 84 142 26 6 16 85 40 44 64 .325 .388 .522 .910 228
2013 21 3 Lgs AA-A+-AAA 127 536 470 66 134 30 2 12 71 38 52 73 .285 .356 .434 .791 204
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Like the Pirates need another gifted outfielder. With Andrew McCutchen in center and Starling Marte in left, Polanco will likely man right, providing Pittsburgh with three outfielders capable of playing center field while producing solid numbers across the board. Polanco, though, looks like a better all-around player than Marte, showing gap power, speed, and a very good approach at the plate. He may not be an MVP candidate like “Cutch”, but he’ll provide value in Pittsburgh for quite some time as a definitive upgrade over the Jose TabataGarrett Jones, and Travis Snider parade that has provided very little value over the last several seasons.

16. Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs; 4/16/1994

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2012 18 2 Lgs Rk-A- 33 145 140 27 45 12 1 2 19 5 2 13 .321 .331 .464 .795 65
2013 19 MIDW A 61 272 249 39 82 17 4 3 23 4 17 30 .329 .376 .466 .842 116
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Almora, like Baez, has tools and skills to become an elite talent at the major league level, although, unlike Baez, Almora is more of a contact and gap-power hitter and not the light-tower power that his counterpart possesses. In a small sample, he showed something that a lot of Cubs’ prospects don’t…plate discipline. With his ability to make solid contact, he looks like a solid top-of-the-order player, but he could very well grow into something much more. If nothing else, Almora will provide Gold Glove defensive ability.

Castellanos

17. Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF, Detroit Tigers; 3/4/1992

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2010 18 GULF Rk 7 29 24 5 8 2 0 0 3 0 4 5 .333 .414 .417 .830 10
2011 19 MIDW A 135 562 507 65 158 36 3 7 76 3 45 130 .312 .367 .436 .803 221
2012 20 2 Lgs AA-A+ 134 584 537 72 172 32 4 10 57 8 36 118 .320 .365 .451 .815 242
2013 21 IL AAA 134 595 533 81 147 37 1 18 76 4 54 100 .276 .343 .450 .793 240
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.
Year Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB
2013 DET AL 11 18 18 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .278 .278 .278 .556 51 5
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Castellanos did take a few more walks in 2013, so that is a great step in his development, as his long swing and inability to take a walk was a concern for many prospect graders in the past. With the trade of Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers, it looks like Castellanos will move back to third base, with Miguel Cabrera sliding back across the diamond to first. As a corner outfielder, Castellanos’ production was likely a bit lacking, but with just a few consistent producers at the hot corner, a young player like this capable of 15-20 home runs and 30-plus doubles is a nice addition to the field. If he maintains his improved approach, Castellanos could be a real candidate for the 2014 AL Rookie of the Year.

18. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros; 9/19/1989

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2011 21 NYPL A- 8 33 28 8 5 3 0 1 3 4 2 2 .179 .303 .393 .696 11
2012 22 2 Lgs A+-AA 128 581 506 109 153 21 10 24 87 32 62 156 .302 .383 .526 .908 266
2013 23 2 Lgs AA-AAA 135 589 492 106 149 27 4 37 108 45 83 161 .303 .411 .600 1.010 295
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Like Castellanos, Springer takes some shots due to his strikeout totals; however, his all-around game could still allow for success at the major league level. Just three home runs shy of posting a 40/40 season in 2013, Springer would have likely had a bigger impact on the Astros winning games than any of the group of Brandon Barnes, J.D. Martinez, L.J. Hoes, Robbie Grossman, and Trevor Crowe that helped Houston lose 111 games in 2013. While it seems unreasonable to expect 40/40 production in the majors, Springer could provide seasons of 25 HR/25 SB annually, which will be quite valuable once the club’s elite prospects join him in Houston and the Astros begin contending in the next few years.

19. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies; 11/5/1991

Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2013 21 2 Lgs A+-Rk 4 0 1.93 9 0 0 37.1 25 11 8 0 8 51 0.884 6.0 12.3 6.38
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Despite taking some medication for ADHD and looking like a potential slider in the 2013 MLB Draft, the Rockies jumped at the chance to draft Gray and his incredible fastball and the results were nothing short of sexy. Coor’s Field will continue to be a question mark when it comes to the ceiling of pitching prospects for Colorado, but I can’t remember a time that the Rockies have had a pitcher like this. Lockdown, shutdown stuff like Gray’s will be very useful if the Rockies are ever going to contend in the NL West. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gray in the top five at the end of next season, possibly even the mid-season lists, and his electric fastball and slider should suit him well in the thin, Denver air.

20. Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals; 9/21/1991

Year Age Tm W L ERA G GF SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2013 21 STL 2 1 5.08 21 5 0 1 28.1 31 16 16 1 9 24 1.412 9.8 2.9 7.6 2.67
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/2/2014.
Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 18 DOSL FRk 3 2 0.76 12 12 1 0 59.0 28 8 5 1 14 78 0.712 4.3 2.1 11.9 5.57
2011 19 2 Lgs A+-A 6 5 3.93 18 18 0 0 84.2 76 41 37 3 44 98 1.417 8.1 4.7 10.4 2.23
2012 20 2 Lgs AA-A+ 6 5 2.93 22 21 0 0 104.1 91 39 34 6 32 92 1.179 7.8 2.8 7.9 2.88
2013 21 2 Lgs AAA-AA 6 3 2.49 16 16 0 0 79.2 65 25 22 4 28 72 1.167 7.3 3.2 8.1 2.57
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/2/2014.

Martinez has earned a lot of Pedro Martinez comparisons due to his size and being a Dominican Republic native, but the stuff is also involved in those comps. Carlos Martinez is quite capable of dominating in the majors in 2014, but he still needs a rotation spot, and that is the lone reason for his ranking. The Cardinals depth is scary, as Trevor Rosenthal and Martinez appear bullpen bound for the next several seasons with Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, and Jaime Garcia ahead of them on the depth charts, and while a trade seems easy to say as a bystander, why would you deal any of those guys? Martinez will be dominant in whatever role he fills, but he slides to 20 due to his unknown future role.

21. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays; 4/1/1992

Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 17 2 Lgs Rk-A- 0 3 2.16 10 0 0 25.0 23 15 6 1 17 37 1.600 8.3 13.3 2.18
2011 18 2 Lgs Rk-A- 3 3 5.30 14 0 0 54.1 53 33 32 4 26 56 1.454 8.8 9.3 2.15
2012 19 MIDW A 8 5 2.49 25 0 0 90.1 64 33 25 3 51 97 1.273 6.4 9.7 1.90
2013 20 FLOR A+ 4 5 3.34 22 0 0 86.1 63 40 32 4 40 75 1.193 6.6 7.8 1.88
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Sanchez is the pitching equivalent to Oscar Taveras: Electric, game-changing stuff…he just can’t stay on the field. In 2013, it was the shoulder, which is always scary when it comes to a pitcher with a high-90’s fastball, that led to Sanchez missing time. Beyond the injuries, the walks are also an issue. The issues are obvious in Sanchez and his inability to reach his ceiling, but the fact that he has the stuff to be a No.1 starter and he is entering his age-21 season, they’re worth holding out for. The Jays will hope that this is the year that he puts it all together.

Giolito

22. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals; 7/14/1994

Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2012 17 GULF Rk 0 0 4.50 1 2.0 2 1 1 0 0 1 1.000 9.0 0.0 4.5
2013 18 2 Lgs Rk-A- 2 1 1.96 11 36.2 28 9 8 1 14 39 1.145 6.9 3.4 9.6 2.79
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/2/2014.

After having Tommy John surgery, Giolito came back with a vengeance in 2013, showcasing the electric arm and stuff that made him the 16th overall pick in 2012, despite possessing said cranky elbow at the time of his selection. Giolito has No.1 stuff, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Washington be very aggressive with the 6’6″, 225 pound right-hander, likely starting him in Low-A Hagerstown, with a brief appearance for High-A Potomac by years end.

23. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles; 11/15/1992

Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2012 19 3 Lgs A+-A-AA 9 3 2.08 23 0 0 103.2 67 29 24 6 28 119 0.916 5.8 10.3 4.25
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.
Year Tm Lg W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2012 BAL AL 0 0 0.00 2 0 0 0 1.2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1.200 5.4 0.0 0.00
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Bundy missed all of the 2013 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he was near the top of everyone’s lists prior to the injury. With the going success rates of the surgery, Bundy could jump right back to where he was when he returns this season. The Orioles will be very cautious with him, but he should be looked at a lot like Stephen Strasburg was – he was an ace-level talent who was hurt, had surgery, and was thought of an ace again once healthy.

24. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals; 9/13/1991

Year Age Lg Lev W L ERA G CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2012 20 2 Lgs A-Rk 3 3 2.04 9 1 1 39.2 39 16 9 1 8 42 1.185 8.8 9.5 5.25
2013 21 2 Lgs A+-AA 6 9 4.32 22 1 1 108.1 91 58 52 11 36 140 1.172 7.6 11.6 3.89
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Zimmer struggled for some time last season before everything just clicked and he was an absolute monster. There is an adjustment period in many prospects, and the Zimmer who was electric and dominant is the pitcher that the Royals and the rest of us should expect going forward. If the Royals are competitive in 2014, Zimmer will be a viable option to guide them to the playoffs down the stretch.

25. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs; 1/4/1992

Year Age Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2013 21 3 Lgs A–A+-Rk 36 146 128 22 43 14 2 9 32 1 11 35 .336 .390 .688 1.078 88
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/23/2013.

Bryant’s long-term position remains a mystery, but wherever he ends up, he will likely be producing All-Star level numbers, with a whole lot of swing and miss ability. The Cubs have quite a few middle infield options (Junior Lake, Javier Baez, Starlin Castro, Arismendy Alcantara, Darwin Barney) and someone will be moved to third (likely Baez), but Bryant at first, left, or right is just as potent. The transition to a different position could lead to some offensive struggles, but the fans on Sheffield Avenue and Waveland Avenue will see quite a few home runs starting sometime in 2014, as Bryant quickly rises through the Cubs strong offensive system. .

"Cubs

26. Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs; 2/25/1992

27. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates; 5/3/1995

28. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles; 12/9/1994

29. Yordano Ventura, RHP, Kansas City Royals; 6/3/1991

30. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers; 4/27/1994

31. Travis d’Arnaud, C, New York Mets; 2/10/1989

32. Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres; 8/18/1992

33. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds; 9/9/1990

34. Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros; 7/15/1991

35. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros; 9/18/1991

36. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins; 1/3/1990

37. Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers; 4/21/1992

"Indians

38. Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians; 9/6/1994

39. Matt Wisler, RHP, San Diego Padres; 9/12/1992

40. Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas Rangers; 2/3/1994

41. Max Fried, LHP, San Diego Padres; 1/18/1994

42. Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants; 11/30/1992

43. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Miami Marlins; 6/5/1991

44. Eddie Butler, RHP, Colorado Rockies; 3/13/1991

45. Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston Red Sox; 4/20/1991

46. Colin Moran, 3B, Miami Marlins; 10/1/1992

47. Jackie Bradley, OF, Boston Red Sox; 4/19/1990

48. Michael Foltynewicz, RHP, Houston Astros; 10/7/1991

49. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins; 10/7/1994

50. Marcus Stroman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays; 5/1/1991

51. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Baltimore Orioles; 4/7/1993

52. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates; 8/23/1993

"Mariners

53. James Paxton, LHP, Seattle Mariners; 11/6/1988

54. Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals; 10/10/1990

55. Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals; 7/27/1995

56. Jorge Alfaro, C, Texas Rangers; 6/11/1993

57. D.J. Peterson, 3B, Seattle Mariners; 12/31/1991

58. Phillip Ervin, OF, Cincinnati Reds; 7/17/1992

59. Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta Braves; 5/10/1994

60Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees; 12/2/1992

61. Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox; 7/21/1992

62. Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals; 8/3/1992

63. Nick Williams, OF, Texas Rangers; 9/8/1993

64. Arismendy Alcantara, 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs; 10/29/1991

65. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds; 8/17/1993

66. C.J. Edwards, RHP, Chicago Cubs; 9/3/1991

67. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers; 8/12/1996

68. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians; 1/17/1991

69. Jonathan Schoop, 2B/SS, Baltimore Orioles; 10/16/1991

70. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies; 1/11/1995

71. Sean Manaea, LHP, Kansas City Royals; 2/1/1992

72. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays; 3/27/1990

73. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox; 4/3/1992

74. Erik Johnson, RHP, Chicago White Sox; 12/30/1989

75. A.J. Cole, RHP, Washington Nationals; 1/5/1992

76. Alen Hanson, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates; 10/22/1992

77. Alberto Tirado, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays; 12/10/1994

78. Lance McCullers, RHP, Houston Astros; 10/2/1993

79. Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF, Minnesota Twins; 9/28/1991

80. Rafael Montero, RHP, New York Mets; 10/17/1990

81. Zach Lee, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers; 9/13/1991

82. Miguel Almonte, RHP, Kansas City Royals; 4/4/1993

83. Enny Romero, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays; 1/24/1991

84. Victor Sanchez, RHP, Seattle Mariners; 1/30/1995

85. Matt Barnes, RHP, Boston Red Sox; 6/17/1990

86. David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies; 4/1/1994

87. Reese McGuire, C, Pittsburgh Pirates; 3/2/1995

88. Brian Goodwin, OF, Washington Nationals; 11/2/1990

89. Jake Marisnick, OF, Miami Marlins; 3/30/1991

"Phillies

90. Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies; 8/26/1992

91. Alex Colome, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays; 12/31/1988

92. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Boston Red Sox; 9/9/1989

93. Chris Owings, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks; 8/12/1991

94. Joey Gallo, 1B/3B, Texas Rangers; 11/19/1993

95. Jorge Bonifacio, OF, Kansas City Royals; 6/4/1993

96. Mike Olt, 1B/3B, Chicago Cubs; 8/27/1988

97. Dorssys Paulino, SS, Cleveland Indians; 11/21/1994

98. Trey Ball, LHP, Boston Red Sox; 6/27/1994

99. Clayton Blackburn, RHP, San Francisco Giants; 1/6/1993

100. Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers; 6/5/1989


//

2014 Breakout Candidates

As fantasy baseball managers await the landing spots of the remaining big-name free agents, they should also be using this time to look for players who will take giant steps towards stardom during the 2014 season. We have all seen the dominance of Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera over the last two seasons, but how many people saw Paul Goldschmidt going from a 2.9 WAR player in 2012 to a 6.4 WAR player in 2013? Last February, I wrote this same article and listed Goldschmidt, Matt Moore, Chris Tillman, Chris Johnson, Carlos Gomez, Salvador Perez, and Dexter Fowler, while missing on Kyle Kendrick and Ike Davis. That’s not a bad percentage if you ask me, so we’ll give it another go for 2014. Here are some names to watch in the 2014 Major League Baseball season.

SimmonsAndrelton Simmons, Atlanta Braves, SS

2013: .248/.296/.396, 27 2B, 6 3B, 17 HR, 59 RBI

2014 prediction: .277/.332/.435, 33 2B, 5 3B, 19 HR, 67 RBI

You know, this isn’t a huge leap forward in offensive numbers in my prediction, but it is possible that Simmons becomes a lot more than that. Simmons isn’t a speed demon on the base paths like a Jean Segura or Elvis Andrus, but whatever happened with his swing in 2013 that created power could be what separates him from shortstops not named Troy Tulowitzki. Simmons is already an elite defender and when he hit 17 home runs in 2013, after having a previous career-high of six (combined in Double-A and the majors in 2012), he became quite a factor offensively, as well. When considering the counting stats that came out of Simmons with a .247 BABIP, what could he do with a league average BABIP? Then, factor in his 29 extra-base hits in 67 games in the second half, when he posted a 120 sOPS+, and you could see the evolution of his game going even further. Simmons may never become a truly elite offensive player, but his ability to put the bat to the ball will eventually lead to more balls in play, and that means more production. Is the power for real? We’ll find out this season, but if it played in 2013 with very little help in the lineup from Dan Uggla, Jason Heyward, and B.J. Upton, imagine what his counting stats could look like when he sees better pitches.

BeltBrandon Belt, San Francisco Giants, 1B

2013: .289/.360/.481, 39 2B, 4 3B, 17 HR, 67 RBI

2014 prediction: .294/.373/.521, 33 2B, 3 3B, 27 HR, 92 RBI

Belt finally received over 500 plate appearances in 2013 and he posted a 142 OPS+, elevated by his .915 OPS in the second half. He turns 26 in April and he is physically maturing into a player that even Bruce Bochy can’t bench, despite Michael Morse signing with the Giants and being an atrocious left fielder. It will be hard for Belt to duplicate his .392 BABIP from the second half of 2013, but he has managed an extremely high BABIP over his career from the minors through last season, so a full season of a .351 BABIP (the number he has duplicated the last two seasons)  would likely lead to further offensive improvements. Even in a difficult home ballpark, Belt seems poised for an extreme breakout.

Kole Calhoun, Los Angeles Angels, OF

2013: .282/.347/.462, 7 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 32 RBI in 222 plate appearances

2014 prediction: .275/.356/.481, 29 2B, 5 3B, 19 HR, 81 RBI

In a season that was devastated by zero pitching and very little production out of high-priced stars Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols, the Angels did have a couple of bright spots – of course, Mike Trout, but fellow outfielder Kole Calhoun opened some eyes late in the year. With Mark Trumbo out of the picture, Calhoun will ever a star-studded lineup, and while he isn’t going to post numbers similar to those of his teammates, he will be quite productive. At 26, Calhoun is a little older than your typical “new prospect” entering their first full season in the bigs, but he was a college bat who moved pretty quickly through the Halos’ system, never appearing in a game in Double-A. With solid plate discipline and plenty of protection, Calhoun could improve upon the 126 wRC+ that he posted over the second half of the season, when he solidified himself as a reliable option for the Angels. Think of him as a better version of Cody Ross with a much better supporting cast.

Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins, OF

2013: .288/.370/.396, 12 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 10 SB in 273 plate appearances

2014 prediction: .310/.375/.435, 34 2B, 6 3B, 12 HR, 71 RBI, 22 SB

Yelich may not make for an elite defender wherever he ends up, but the guy has an impressive approach and enough speed to make himself useful on the base paths. Having just turned 22 years old at the beginning of December, there could be some harsh adjustments, but Yelich has been able to adjust as he has flown through the Marlins’ minor league system, slashing .313/.387/.499 over 1,292 plate appearances. Yelich will never be a 30-homer producer, as I tend to think of him as a Mark Grace-like hitter, but Grace made three All-Star appearances and fell just short of 2.500 career hits. Yelich will be a very effective asset for Miami and fantasy teams alike…immediately. Considering that Yelich was the 30th most valuable offensive player in baseball in the second half (which is his entire career, based on FanGraphs), why should anyone think otherwise?

AckleyDustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners, 2B/OF

2013: .253/.319/.341, 18 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 31 RBI

2014 prediction: .285/.347/.439, 29 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 68 RBI

The epitome of buying low, Ackley’s career hasn’t really worked out to this point, but after he hit .304/.374/.435 in the second half of 2013 (208 plate appearances), he has earned himself another look, with the Mariners or whoever he gets traded to if Seattle signs another outfielder. The club has already re-signed Franklin Gutierrez to take some at-bats away from Ackley, but he never seems capable of staying on the field. Ackley was the 2nd overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft and he still has the tools to prove that he was worthy of that pick. It’s possible that the shifting from position to position has been a challenge to him as he adjusts to life in the majors, and with Robinson Cano now at second base, and Logan Morrison and Corey Hart capable of playing first base, Ackley is now a center fielder. He has gap power, solid on-base skills, and, finally, an opportunity (barring any unforeseen trades or signings).

RossTyson Ross, San Diego Padres, RHP

2013: 3-8, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 125 IP, 119:44 K:BB

2014 prediction: 9-6, 3.34 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 165 IP, 171:52 K:BB

The Padres have a very crowded rotation, with Ian Kennedy, Josh Johnson, Andrew Cashner, and Robbie Erlin locked into rotation spots. Ross will be in a group with Eric Stults, Casey Kelly, Cory Luebke, and Burch Smith, battling for the fifth spot in the rotation, but after his solid second half, the 6’6″, 230 pound right-hander deserves the longest look. Ross has always bounced around from the bullpen to the rotation, but in his 13 starts down the stretch last season, Ross posted a 2.93 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 80 innings, posting an 85:23 K:BB, along with a 9.6 K/9, the highest of his career. His slider became a swing and miss pitch with his mid-90’s fastball, and he could be very useful for the Padres or another club in 2014. Since he is eligible for arbitration for the first time, he is still cost effective (for the time being), but he took a large step forward in maintaining a role last season, and it would be a shame for him to lose that role after pitching so well. Keep an eye on him this spring and make sure to verify what San Diego does with him. With so many other options and the Padres success in finding bullpen arms from the depths of the world, if he isn’t starting, they need to move him for some offensive assistance.

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies, RHP

2013: 14-10, 3.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 197.1 IP, 126:61 K:BB

2014 prediction: 17-9, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 212 IP, 165:58 K:BB

Sometimes, to go forward, you must first step back. Chacin’s entire career has been a group of backwards steps. His fastball has lost velocity, his K/9 has gone from 9.0 in 2010 to 5.7 in 2013, and his career-best ERA is still his 2010 season (3.28). However, the fact of the matter is that Chacin knows how to pitch in Coor’s Field, he just has to stay healthy. He fell short of 200 innings again in 2013 due to back spasms landing him on the 15-day DL in April, but this is going to be the year! Chacin has cut back on the use of his curveball and change, both of which are highly affected by the thin air of Denver, instead, utilizing his slider more. He has started pitching to contact, which explains the low strikeout totals, but he seems to have enough stuff to rebound to become a useful strikeout pitcher in fantasy formats, although his average fastball dipped to 89.8 mph in 2013. The Rockies have an interesting club and a very good defensive group to assist their pitchers. If everyone stays healthy and Chacin takes his current pitching skills and combines it with how he used to pitch, he could become quite an asset, being capable of tempting the opposition to swing for contact and swing and miss whenever he wants them to.

GausmanKevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles, RHP

2013: 3-5, 5.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 47.2 IP, 49:13 K:BB

2014 prediction: 11-9, 3.22 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 176 IP, 182:68 K:BB

Gausman, in my opinion, is the second coming of Justin Verlander, just a little smaller in stature. At 6’3″, 190 pounds, Gausman still has the size to drive towards home and get extreme velocity, which he does with a fastball that can hit triple-digits. He sits 95-98 with his fastball, he has two excellent varieties of his changeup, and a projectable slider, all of which make him capable of becoming an elite starter in the majors. The Orioles are going to contend again in 2014, and the reason for that will be a 23 year-old right-hander out of LSU whose introduction to MLB wasn’t as sexy as the rest of his career will be. It starts now.

Some Minor Leaguers/Rookie-Eligible players who could make an impact:

BradleyEduardo Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles, LHP

Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks, RHP

Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds, RHP

Alex Meyer, Minnesota Twins, RHP

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays, RHP

Oscar Taveras, St. Louis Cardinals, OF

Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins, 3B

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates, RHP

Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays, RHP

Jackie Bradley, Jr., Boston Red Sox, OF

Bogaerts1Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox, SS/3B

Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners, RHP

James Paxton, Seattle Mariners, LHP

Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds, OF

Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox, 1B

Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Philadelphia Phillies, RHP

Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets, RHP

Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers, 3B

Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals, RHP

Logan Morrison: LoMo NoMo in Seattle?

Hart
Recent Seattle additions: Corey Hart and Logan Morrison

When the Seattle Mariners acquired first baseman/outfielder Logan Morrison from the Miami Marlins via trade for relief pitcher Carter Capps on the same day that the club signed first baseman/outfielder Corey Hart away from the Milwaukee Brewers via free agency, I felt that there was something strange to the deal. The Mariners already had a lot of options at first base, albeit not tremendous ones, in Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero (who has likely moved off of catcher and is a first baseman/DH), and Dustin Ackley (who appears to be a utility player and has experience at first base from his time playing the position at North Carolina). Adding familiar, more successful names, particularly with Hart and the huge Robinson Cano signing was one thing, but how does Morrison really fit in with the Seattle club?

After making some noise in his first 185 games of his career for the Marlins by posting a .259/.351/.460 with 45 doubles, 11 triples, 25 home runs, 90 RBI, and a 150:95 K:BB in 812 plate appearances, Morrison has bombed to a .236/.321/.387 triple-slash since the start of the 2012 season, with 28 doubles, five triples, 17 home runs, 72 RBI, and a 114:69 K:BB in 667 plate appearances. There is still some production there, but Morrison hasn’t been nearly as impressive; however, considering that he is still just 26, there would seem to be some time for him to get his career back on track. But will it be in Seattle?

MorrisonIn addition to the gluttony of first basemen in Seattle, Logan Morrison is an absolute nightmare in the outfield, as he has posted a -26.9 UZR in his career as a left fielder, which is, of course, much worse than the -4.3 UZR that he has provided as a first baseman. After Corey Hart missed all of the 2013 season due to micro-fracture surgery on his right knee, it is safe to assume that he will either be the Mariners’ new DH or first baseman, which could be troublesome for the Seattle defensive outlook if it forces Morrison to the outfield on a full-time basis.

Which brings me to the continued efforts and rumors of a David Price to Seattle trade…After likely losing James Loney to free agency (especially considering his rumored $9-10 million annual salary that he is seeking), the Tampa Bay Rays could still use a first baseman, as the current roster makeup would leave a lot of playing time for Sean Rodriguez at first base, which doesn’t seem like a smart, Rays-like idea. So, could it be possible that the Mariners stole Morrison, which they did in acquiring him for a bullpen arm in Carter, to package him with other, in-house players in a deal for David Price?

It isn’t as if Logan Morrison could be the central figure in the Rays’ return in a deal, but three years of team control on a player with enough of a bat to be useful within Tampa’s unconventional, stats-driven ideology would make him an intriguing addition. With Cano at second base, Nick Franklin appears to be available, and while he isn’t much of a defender at shortstop, the Rays have Yunel Escobar through the 2014 season, with slick fielding shortstop Hak-Ju Lee coming up the prospect pipeline. Franklin could take over second base in 2015 if the Rays decline Ben Zobrist‘s 2015 option (very unlikely with a $7.5 million salary and his yearly effectiveness), or the club could utilize Zobrist all over the field, as they have done over the last several seasons. Taijuan Walker, the 21-year-old top prospect of the Mariners, continues to be the key name mentioned as the centerpiece of a deal, and by packaging this trio to Tampa Bay, the Mariners rotation would have one of the most frightening rotations this side of the Greg MadduxJohn SmoltzTom Glavine Braves, and Tampa would have affordable, young, major league ready talent that they continually covet. (Side Note: The Mariners gave Corey Hart the No.27, Walker’s number from 2013…were they suggesting something here?)

The Mariners shocked the world when they swooped in and signed Robinson Cano to a ten-year, $240 million deal, and they appear to have moved from a slow and steady rebuild to a team looking to contend immediately. With a unique blend of young talent in Ackley, Franklin, Brad Miller, Mike Zunino, and Kyle Seager already around, the addition of Cano, Morrison, and Hart seemed to implode the existing philosophies on where the team was heading in a matter of a week.

PriceMorrison may not be a star, but he could have been the additional piece needed to pluck David Price away from the Tampa Bay Rays. While there have been plenty of questionable moves by Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik over the last several seasons, the acquisition of Morrison wasn’t one of them, and as the team looks to continue to make bold moves to turn itself into immediate contenders, it will be interesting to see how many more deals and signings could be made in the Pacific Northwest to bring a winner back to the house that Griffey built.