Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Basemen

Below you’ll find the rankings for 1B for the 2012 season.  You’ll see 2012 projections in italics. 

1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 

.344/.448/.586, 48 2B, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 2 SB in 572 AB

.327/.431/.596, 49 2B, 37 HR, 121 RBI, 1 SB in 579 AB

How can one of the best hitters in baseball get even better?  Adding Prince Fielder to the lineup.  The Tigers are going to need run production with Cabrera playing some 3B, as their defense may become as ugly as the Patriots secondary.

2. Albert Pujols, Angels

.299/.366/.541, 29 2B, 37 HR, 99 RBI, 9 SB in 579 AB

.313/.389/.563, 36 2B, 34 HR, 112 RBI, 5 SB in 599 AB

Pujols had a “down” year in 2011.  If only everyone could look so good when they’re so “bad.”  He’ll rebound with health, and he’ll maintain that health with the ability to DH on occasion.  His lineup is filled with vets, but it shouldn’t hold him back THIS YEAR.  I still don’t think he’s going to be worth the contract by 2015 or 2016…ARod style.

3. Prince Fielder, Tigers

.299/.415/.566, 36 2B, 38 HR, 120 RBI, 1 SB in 569 AB

.315/.426/.588, 43 2B, 35 HR, 119 RBI, 1 SB in 559 AB

Prince isn’t losing anything by moving away from Ryan Braun’s protection with Miguel Cabrera filling that role nicely.  He immediately makes Detroit a contender with his arrival, especially since they were already there before he got there.  Scary good with the Comerica Park gaps.

4. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox

.338/.410/.548, 45 2B, 27 HR, 117 RBI, 1 SB in 630 AB

.327/.422/.553, 39 2B, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 1 SB in 614 AB

Gonzalez will have a full season of a not-God-awful Carl Crawford to drive in, and he’ll be comfortable in Fenway to start the year, so he won’t lose a month of power like he did at the start of 2011.

5. Joey Votto, Reds

.309/.416/.531, 40 2B, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 8 SB in 599 AB

.329/.426/.569, 36 2B, 38 HR, 106 RBI, 6 SB in 587 AB

Votto is a very patient hitter in a lineup that lacks patience.  He’ll take pitches and lose RBI’s due to guys not getting on around him, and walking about the same number of times that he strikes out.  He’s going to step up his production as he heads towards Free Agency after 2013, developing a market for himself early.  He’s in a great ballpark, Great American to be exact, to make it happen.

6. Eric Hosmer, Royals

.293/.334/.465, 27 2B, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 11 SB in 523 AB

.287/.362/.501, 31 2B, 26 HR, 89 RBI, 14 SB in 598 AB

Hosmer had a strong rookie season and is only going to get better.  2012 will be the first signs of what he is capable of, but his numbers will continue to climb from here.  He has power and is athletic enough to continue stealing bases.  He could eventually become a Ryan Braun clone at 1B, with fewer stolen bases.  I have him high on the list because he showed what he is capable of in the 2nd half of 2011.

7. Mark Teixeira, Yankees 

.248/.341/.494, 26 2B, 39 HR, 111 RBI, 4 SB in 589 AB

.253/.339/.513, 28 SB, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 2 SB in 594 AB

Teixeira’s AVG and SLG have fallen significantly in the last several seasons, and his high strikeout rate suddenly screams that he is on the decline, as he can’t keep up with fastballs like he used to.  With that being said, he is still mashing.  I have a slight bounceback coming, but he isn’t capable of the high averages and power like he used to be.

8. Michael Young, Rangers 

.338/.380/.474, 41 2B, 6 3B, 11 HR, 106 RBI, 6 SB in 631 AB

.318/.372/.468, 37 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 97 RBI, 5 SB in 639 AB

Young just keeps hitting.  He led the league in hits last year and continues showing the ability to be versatile, which has a lot of value in various fantasy formats.  Look for more of the same with a solid lineup around him, even as he continues aging.  He showed no signs of breaking down last year.

9. Freddie Freeman, Braves 

.282/.346/.448, 32 2B, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 4 SB in 571 AB

.294/.357/.467, 34 2B, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 3 SB in 584 AB

With a name this bad, you’d think there was no way that he would be a successful baseball player.  Maybe a plumber or sales guy…however, Freeman is very young and is a polished hitter.  He’s hitting better than previous super-prospect Jason Heyward  has to this point, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he continues to do so in coming years.  He may never hit 30-35 homers per season, but he will do more than enough to be an asset in fantasy and for the Braves.

10. Michael Morse, Nationals

.303/.360/.550, 36 2B, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 2 SB in 522 AB

.286/.342/.549, 34 2B, 33 HR, 107 RBI, 1 SB in 571 AB

Morse came out of nowhere, kind of, to post very valuable fantasy numbers in 2011.  He has tremendous power and a long swing, which still will make his susceptible to slumps and strikeouts.  The Nationals are improving around him, though, so he should continue to build value.  He will ultimately be a first baseman, but he will patrol left field to open the season.  He could move to first if or when Adam LaRoche’s next injury strikes, but he’ll certainly be there by 2013 for good. 

11. Billy Butler, Royals 

.291/.361/.461, 44 2B, 19 HR, 95 RBI, 2 SB in 597 AB

.314/.379/.501, 41 2B, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 1 SB in 599 AB

12. Ike Davis, Mets 

.302/.383/.543, 8 2B, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB in 129 AB

.291/.372/.538, 32 2B, 28 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB in 586 AB

Davis was headed towards a breakout prior to the ankle injury that he suffered in 2011.  Imagine the capabilities in an offense that is relying heavily on him, especially after the fences were moved in.  This is the year.

13. Lance Berkman, Cardinals 

.301/.412/.547, 23 2B, 31 HR, 94 RBI, 2 SB in 488 AB

.283/.394/.527, 21 2B, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 1 SB in 506 AB

He won’t hit as well with added pressure to perform, but he should maintain health by moving to first.  He’s aging, even if he posted a solid season for what seems like the first time in years in 2011, so don’t think he is going to get a whole lot better than last year.

14. Ryan Howard, Phillies 

.253/.346/.488, 30 2B, 33 HR, 116 RBI, 1 SB in 557 AB

.247/.339/.479, 23 2B, 26 HR, 82 RBI, 0 SB in 486 AB

Decline City.  Major injury + drops in OPS over the last few years = the NL version of Teixeira with a whole lot less to offer.  Howard will miss the first month, but he’ll still post solid power numbers.  He isn’t a top of the line bat anymore, and he and his teammates are aging quicker than Benjamin Button, only the opposite way.

15. Paul Konerko, White Sox 

.300/.388/.517, 25 2B, 31 HR, 105 RBI, 1 SB in 543 AB

.309/.392/.524, 28 2B, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 1 SB in 564 AB

There’s no way that Konerko can’t be better in 2011 because Alex Rios, Adam Dunn, and Gordon Beckham will be better around him.  He’ll drive in more runs and see more pitches.

16. Mark Reynolds, Orioles

.221/.323/.483, 27 2B, 37 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB in 534 AB

.232/.331/.489, 26 2B, 39 HR, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 541 AB

17. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks 

.250/.333/.474, 9 2B, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 4 SB in 156 AB

.259/.341/.510, 28 2B, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 7 SB in 533 AB

18. Yonder Alonso, Padres

.330/.398/.545, 4 2B, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB in 88 AB

.309/.389/.508, 36 2B, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 1 SB in 531 AB

19. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins

.266/.352/.427, 35 2B, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 3 SB in 572 AB

.271/.354/.449, 37 2B, 18 HR, 83 RBI, 2 SB in 576 AB

20. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies 

.284/.346/.459, 29 2B, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB in 529 AB

.279/.339/.453, 31 2B, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 8 SB in 559 AB

21. Carlos Lee, Astros

.275/.342/.446, 38 2B, 18 HR, 94 RBI, 4 SB in 585 AB

.271/.341/.439, 36 2B, 21 HR, 89 RBI, 2 SB in 591 AB

22. Justin Morneau, Twins

.227/.285/.333, 16 2B, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 0 SB in 264 AB

.264/.326/.411, 21 2B, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 0 SB in 403 AB

If he stays on the field, he’s still going to have to adjust and be consistent.  Chris Parmelee may be the best Twins first baseman to own going forward.

23. Justin Smoak, Mariners

.234/.323/.396, 24 2B, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 0 SB in 427 AB

.271/.359/.489, 31 2B, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 1 SB in 568 AB

This is the year, guys!  Smoak stays healthy, has help with Montero coming over, and he develops.  He’s still just 25!

24. Aubrey Huff, Giants

.246/.306/.370, 27 2B, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 5 SB in 521 AB

.261/.326/.409, 31 2B, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB in 535 AB

25. Carlos Pena, Rays

.225/.357/.462, 27 2B, 28 HR, 80 RBI, 2 SB in 493 AB

.231/.379/.491, 26 2B, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB in 519 AB

26. James Loney, Dodgers

.288/.339/.416, 30 2B, 12 HR, 65 RBI, 4 SB in 531 AB

.281/.341/.421, 34 2B, 14 HR, 70 RBI, 3 SB 546 AB

27. Casey Kotchman, Indians

.306/.378/.422, 24 2B, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB in 500 AB

.311/.386/.441, 31 2B, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 1 SB in 562 AB

28. Adam Lind, Blue Jays

.251/.295/.439, 16 2B, 26 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB in 499 AB

.255/.310/.441, 18 2B, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 1 SB in 512 AB

29. Mitch Moreland, Rangers

.259/.320/.414, 22 2B, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 2 SB in 464 AB

.265/.329/426, 29 2B, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 3 SB in 520 AB

30. Todd Helton, Rockies

.302/.385/.466, 27 2B, 14 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB in 421 AB

.294/.376/.459, 24 2B, 13 HR, 67 RBI, 0 SB in 432 AB

GM for the Day: San Francisco Giants

After winning the World Series in 2010, the Giants finished 86-76, good for 2nd in the NL West.  The team was still made up of veterans, but they did see a couple of new faces, like SS Brandon Crawford and 1B/LF Brandon Belt.  The Giants are in an interesting period in the coming seasons.  They are working on locking up Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, while still trying to develop some offensive talent.  They have drafted well in recent seasons and they’ll be getting Buster Posey back in 2012, they still have some incredible pitching, but do they have what it takes to get back to the top?  The current 25-man roster:

2 Catchers: Buster Posey and Eli Whiteside

1B: Aubrey Huff

2B: Freddy Sanchez

3B: Pablo Sandoval

SS: Brandon Crawford

LF: Melky Cabrera

CF: Angel Pagan

RF: Nate Schierholtz

Bench: Mike Fontenot (INF), Emmanuel Burriss (INF), Justin Christian (OF) and Brett Pill (1B)

Starting Pitching: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito

Relief Pitching: Brian Wilson, Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler and Steve Edlefsen

The Giants have an interesting roster.  They could do better at short than Crawford and still may.  If they’re looking to upgrade there, good luck.  They’re better off hoping that Crawford’s glove makes up for his lack of hitting skills until Joe Panik, a college bat who could move quickly, is ready.  What would have been better?  Putting Nate Schierholtz and Angel Pagan on the pine, moving Aubrey Huff to RF, Brandon Belt to LF, and signing Prince Fielder to make some splashes in the bay.  This team has been in desperate need of a bat since Barry Bonds took his gigantic head home, not by choice, of course.  Honestly, I know they had good pitching, but how in THE HELL did the Giants beat the Rangers 4-1 in the 2010 World Series?  Pablo Sandoval could become the bat that the Giants need.  He’ll be 25 in 2012 and he hit 23 homers, even after breaking his wrist in 2011, in just 117 games.  He should approach 30 and become one of the few solid 3B in baseball in 2012.  The Giants would be the favorites in the NL if they got Prince Fielder, though.  I know I had Fielder going to the Cubs and I know that he is talking to the Nationals, but they could probably afford him and one of their aces, Cain or Lincecum.

I know that having a great 1-2 punch in Lincecum and Cain is fantastic, but Bumgarner is going to be capable of becoming that 2nd ace in the next couple of years and Eric Surkamp is ready to slide into the rotation.  The Giants have had great pitching for years.  The home ballpark has helped, even Ryan Vogelsong rejuvenated his career last year.  The rotation is loaded still.  They should be unbeatable in the playoffs with Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner in 2012, so why not go for it…if that’s what it’s all about.

If the Giants made a huge splash and signed Fielder and moved their lot of first baseman to the outfield, they’d become a little less effective defensively, but they’d still have their pitching and now they have an offense.  Buster Posey is a star, Sandoval is a star, Belt could be a star, Melky Cabrera is not a star but he’ll do in center, and Aubrey Huff is only good in years ending in an even number.  Look it up.  I wouldn’t lie to you.  What do you think of a 25-man roster with a little more depth?

2 Catchers: Buster Posey and Eli Whiteside

1B: Prince Fielder

2B: Freddy Sanchez

3B: Pablo Sandoval

SS: Brandon Crawford

LF: Brandon Belt

CF: Melky Cabrera

RF: Aubrey Huff

Bench: Nate Schierholtz (OF), Angel Pagan (OF), Emmanuel Burriss (INF), Mike Fontenot (INF)

Starting Pitching: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito

Relief Pitching: Brian Wilson, Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler and Steve Edlefsen

Upgrade, right?

The Roller Coaster of Aubrey Huff

Aubrey Huff was rewarded with a 2-year, $22 million deal after finishing 7th in the NL MVP voting in 2010 and leading the Giants to a World Series championship.  He was solid but not spectacular across the board, ripping 35 doubles, 26 homeruns, and driving in 86 runs while posting a .290/.385/.506 line.  The 2011 season hasn’t been so kind.  Huff has played some outfield and may need to make room for Brandon Belt, but he will be forced to if the now 34-year-old doesn’t break out of his .236/.290/.361 funk.  The Giants should have checked Huff’s track record to see that this was going to happen.

Huff was an All-Star caliber player from 2002 to 2004, averaging 33 doubles, 29 homers, and 90 RBI for the then-lowly Devil Rays.  He was a light in the world of darkness that faced the early struggles of the franchise.  Huff then began a trend in 2005 that has carried over up to this season, though, 2005 was a solid season overall, his slash line took a hit when compared to his three-year breakout.  Aubrey Huff is an All-Star in even-numbered years and a dud in odd-numbered years.  Take a look:

2005: .261/.321/.428, .749 OPS, 26 2B, 22 HR, 92 RBI

2006: .267/.344/.469, .813 OPS, 25 2B, 21 HR, 66 RBI

2007: .280/.337/.442, .779 OPS, 34 2B, 15 HR, 72 RBI

2008: .304/.360/.552, .912 OPS, 48 2B, 32 HR, 108 RBI

2009: .241/.310/.384, .694 OPS, 30 2B, 15 HR, 85 RBI

2010: .290/.385/.506, .891 OPS, 35 2B, 26 HR, 86 RBI

2011: .236/.290/.361, .651 OPS, 16 2B, 8 HR, 44 RBI through 335 AB

As you can see from the statistics above, Huff has managed to stay productive in his “down years,” driving in an average of 83 runs in 2005, 2007, and 2009.  However, his OPS has been drastically lower this season, as well as in 2009 than his even-numbered seasons.  Huff could lose his job this season based on his “down” production and the presence of Brandon Belt, but he could dominate again in 2012.  What happens then?  The Giants hold a club option for 2013 for $10 million with a $2 million buyout.  Aubrey “Even Year” Huff just isn’t worth that type of commitment in an odd year season.  Maybe he breaks out of the funk and he can get some MVP votes, as he has three times in his career.  Chances are, he is a superstar again next season, if he plays every day.