Tag: Joey Votto

Top 250: 2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings

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While I’ve already posted a top 10 fantasy baseball player at each position piece, I figured with drafts getting underway, that a more thorough ranking would be valuable. Here are the top 250 players in fantasy baseball for the 2013 season. (5X5 leagues, All MLB)

  1. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers
  2. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
  3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers,
  4. Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers
  5. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
  6. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees
  7. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies
  8. Prince Fielder, 1B, Tigers
  9. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
  10. Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels
  11. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies
  12. Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers
  13. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
  14. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
  15. Josh Hamilton, OF, Angels
  16. Justin Upton, OF, Braves
  17. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers
  18. David Price, SP, Rays
  19. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
  20. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays
  21. Buster Posey, C, Giants
  22. David Wright, 3B, Mets
  23. Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners
  24. Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays
  25. Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, Dodgers
  26. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
  27. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox
  28. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds
  29. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers
  30. Cliff Lee, SP, Phillies
  31. Matt Cain, SP, Giants
  32. Jose Reyes, SS, Blue Jays
  33. Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies
  34. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
  35. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
  36. Jered Weaver, SP, Angels
  37. Billy Butler, 1B, Royals
  38. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds
  39. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays
  40. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals
  41. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals
  42. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Athletics
  43. B.J. Upton, OF, Braves
  44. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Dodgers
  45. Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF, Rays
  46. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves
  47. Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals
  48. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals
  49. Chase Headley, 3B, Padres
  50. Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals
  51. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox
  52. Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers
  53. Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals
  54. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
  55. Zack Greinke, SP, Dodgers
  56. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles
  57. Michael Bourn, OF, Indians
  58. R.A. Dickey, SP, Blue Jays
  59. Allen Craig, 1B/OF, Cardinals
  60. Joe Mauer, C, Twins
  61. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays
  62. CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees
  63. Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds
  64. Mat Latos, SP, Reds
  65. Chris Sale, SP, White Sox
  66. Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers
  67. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians
  68. Aaron Hill, 2B, Diamondbacks
  69. Ian Desmond, SS, Nationals
  70. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
  71. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
  72. Jordan Zimmerman, SP, Nationals
  73. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
  74. Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies
  75. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Brewers
  76. Alex Rios, OF, White Sox
  77. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants
  78. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies
  79. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Reds
  80. Aroldis Chapman, SP/RP, Reds
  81. Mark Teixiera, 1B, Yankees
  82. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Phillies
  83. Jason Motte, RP, Cardinals
  84. Alex Gordon, OF, Royals
  85. Kris Medlen, SP/RP, Braves
  86. Matt Moore, SP, Rays
  87. James Shields, SP, Royals
  88. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers
  89. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros
  90. Curtis Granderson, OF, Yankees (mid-May return leaves some value)
  91. Max Scherzer, SP, Tigers
  92. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
  93. Victor Martinez, C, Tigers
  94. Martin Prado, 3B/OF, Diamondbacks
  95. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets
  96. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
  97. Rafael Soriano, RP, Nationals
  98. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers
  99. Fernando Rodney, RP, Rays
  100. Brandon Morrow, SP, Blue Jays
  101. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Indians
  102. Melky Cabrera, OF, Blue Jays
  103. Mariano Rivera, RP, Yankees
  104. J.J. Putz, RP, Diamondbacks
  105. Doug Fister, SP, Tigers
  106. David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
  107. Ian Kennedy, SP, Diamondbacks
  108. Jake Peavy, SP, White Sox
  109. Hunter Pence, OF, Giants
  110. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers
  111. Josh Willingham, OF, Twins
  112. Joe Nathan, RP, Rangers
  113. Joel Hanrahan, RP, Red Sox
  114. Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Angels
  115. Josh Johnson, SP, Blue Jays
  116. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Yankees
  117. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs
  118. Angel Pagan, OF, Giants
  119. Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants
  120. Anibal Sanchez, SP, Tigers
  121. Dan Haren, SP, Nationals
  122. Jonathan Niese, SP, Mets
  123. Shane Victorino, OF, Red Sox
  124. Torii Hunter, OF, Tigers
  125. Erick Aybar, SS, Angels
  126. Neil Walker, 2B, Pirates
  127. John Axford, RP, Brewers
  128. Carl Crawford, OF, Dodgers
  129. Alejandro De Aza, OF, White Sox
  130. Carlos Beltran, OF, Cardinals
  131. David Freese, 3B, Cardinals
  132. Brett Anderson, SP, Athletics
  133. Jim Johnson, RP, Orioles
  134. Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS, Nationals
  135. Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees
  136. Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals
  137. Nelson Cruz, OF, Rangers
  138. Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox
  139. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
  140. Ben Revere, OF, Phillies
  141. Denard Span, OF, Nationals
  142. Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox
  143. Addison Reed, RP, White Sox
  144. Huston Street, RP, Padres
  145. Alcides Escobar, SS, Royals
  146. Sergio Romo, RP, Giants
  147. Jeff Samardzija, SP, Cubs
  148. Ryan Dempster, SP, Red Sox
  149. C.J. Wilson, SP, Angels
  150. Greg Holland, RP, Royals
  151. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies
  152. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
  153. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Nationals
  154. Jason Kubel, OF, Diamondbacks
  155. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers
  156. Wade Miley, SP, Diamondbacks
  157. Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers
  158. Mike Napoli, C/1B, Red Sox
  159. Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies
  160. Michael Morse, OF, Mariners
  161. Jarrod Parker, SP, Athletics
  162. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
  163. J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles
  164. Homer Bailey, SP, Reds
  165. Matt Harvey, SP, Mets
  166. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays
  167. Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles
  168. Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners
  169. Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies
  170. Rafael Betancourt, RP, Rockies
  171. Tim Hudson, SP, Braves
  172. Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves
  173. Miguel Montero, C, Diamondbacks
  174. Josh Reddick, OF, Athletics
  175. Todd Frazier, 1B/3B, Reds
  176. Matt Harrison, SP, Rangers
  177. Jonathan Broxton, RP, Reds
  178. Chris Perez, RP, Indians
  179. Derek Holland, SP, Rangers
  180. Marco Scutaro, 2B/SS, Giants
  181. Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies
  182. Salvador Perez, C, Royals
  183. Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees
  184. Ryan Vogelsong, SP, Giants
  185. Chris Davis, 1B/OF, Orioles
  186. Grant Balfour, RP, Athletics
  187. Mike Minor, SP, Braves
  188. Alexei Ramirez, SS, White Sox
  189. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Yankees
  190. Alexi Ogando, SP/RP, Rangers
  191. Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, Indians
  192. Tommy Milone, SP, Athletics
  193. Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH, Mariners
  194. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox
  195. Colby Rasmus, OF, Blue Jays
  196. Adam Dunn, 1B/DH, White Sox
  197. Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs
  198. Phil Hughes, SP, Yankees
  199. Jaime Garcia, SP, Cardinals
  200. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Braves
  201. Jesus Montero, C, Mariners
  202. Jason Grilli, RP, Pirates
  203. Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres
  204. Corey Hart, 1B, Brewers
  205. Norichika Aoki, OF, Brewers
  206. Lance Berkman, 1B/DH, Rangers
  207. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Yankees
  208. Dayan Viciedo, OF, White Sox
  209. Brandon McCarthy, SP, Diamondbacks
  210. Kenley Jansen, RP, Dodgers
  211. Brandon League, RP, Dodgers
  212. Bobby Parnell, RP, Mets
  213. Michael Cuddyer, 1B/OF, Rockies
  214. Michael Young, 1B/3B, Phillies
  215. A.J. Burnett, SP, Pirates
  216. Jurickson Profar, 2B, Rangers (he should get enough time to have value)
  217. Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals
  218. Trevor Cahill, SP, Diamondbacks
  219. Justin Masterson, SP, Indians
  220. Glen Perkins, RP, Twins
  221. Casey Janssen, RP, Blue Jays
  222. Tom Wilhelmsen, RP, Mariners
  223. Everth Cabrera, SS, Padres
  224. Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins
  225. Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins
  226. Tommy Hanson, SP, Angels
  227. James McDonald, SP, Pirates
  228. Josh Beckett, SP, Dodgers
  229. Marco Estrada, SP, Brewers
  230. Jason Vargas, SP, Angels
  231. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds
  232. Mark Reynolds, 1B, Indians
  233. Steve Cishek, RP, Marlins
  234. Daniel Murphy, 2B, Mets
  235. A.J. Pierzynski, C, Rangers
  236. Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles
  237. Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pirates
  238. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers
  239. Wei-Yin Chen, SP, Orioles
  240. Omar Infante, 2B, Tigers
  241. David Murphy, OF, Rangers
  242. Kelly Johnson, 2B, Rays
  243. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners
  244. Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals
  245. Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs
  246. Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, Cubs
  247. Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals
  248. Brian McCann, C, Braves
  249. Wil Myers, OF, Rays
  250. Jean Segura, SS, Brewers

2013 Cincinnati Reds

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Looking ahead to next season, though the Reds are currently in first place in the NL Central, the Reds have some interesting roster issues to address. Not only do they have arbitration eligible players who can increase payroll significantly, but they’ll have key players with extensions kicking in. Take a look at guaranteed contracts for 2013:

Joey Votto: $17 M

Brandon Phillips: $10 M

Jay Bruce: $7.5 M

Johnny Cueto: $7.4 M

Aroldis Chapman: $2 M

Bronson Arroyo: $11.5 M

Sean Marshall: $4.5 M

Ryan Madson: $2.5 M buyout OR $11 M

Nick Masset: $3.1 M

Ryan Hanigan: $2.05 M

Ryan Ludwick: $500K buyout OR $5 M

Jose Arredondo: $1.2 M

If the Reds buyout Ludwick and Madson, they have $69.25 M locked into 12 players, with only 10 of them returning. If they take on the contracts of both Ludwick and Madson, it goes up to $82.25 M for 12 players. However, it doesn’t end there. The following players are eligible for arbitration after the 2012 season:

Pre-arbitration – players who can have their contracts renewed at the league minimum:

Logan Ondrusek

Sam LeCure

Devin Mesoraco

Zack Cozart

Jordan Smith

Todd Frazier

Arbitration-eligible – players who can be non-tendered or signed through arbitration and receive a raise, with 2012 salaries listed in parenthesis:

Homer Bailey ($2.4 M)

Mat Latos ($550K)

Bill Bray ($1.42 M)

Wilson Valdez ($930K)

Paul Janish ($850K)

Drew Stubbs ($527,500)

Mike Leake ($507,500)

Chris Heisey ($495K)

Alfredo Simon ($487K)

The Reds would be wise to let Homer Bailey walk by being non-tendered, as he shouldn’t be getting a raise considering the inconsistencies that he has shown. He would earn between $3.5-4 M in arbitration. Valdez and Janish are veteran utility players who can be replaced with others who can play defense and not hit…just like them! Stubbs, Leake, and Heisey should all still be affordable in their first year of arbitration, but Latos could be an issue. He will get expensive quickly due to his early success, though it wasn’t with the Reds.

Free-Agents:

Scott Rolen

Miguel Cairo

Willie Harris

So, buyout Ludwick and Madson and keep Heisey in left and Chapman at closer and go from there.

Catchers: Ryan Hanigan and Devin Mesoraco

1B: Joey Votto

2B: Brandon Phillips

3B: Todd Frazier

SS: Zack Cozart

LF: Chris Heisey

CF: Drew Stubbs

RF: Jay Bruce

Starting Rotation:

Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, and OPEN

Bullpen:

Jose Arredondo, Bill Bray, Nick Masset, Sam LeCure, Alfredo Simon, Logan Ondrusek, Sean Marshall, and Aroldis Chapman

Bench:

OPEN

Clearly, the Reds would need to fill the bench with about three players: a utility infielder, a super-utility player (infield and outfield), and a good fourth outfielder. They will need to look to free agency to fill those roles. The following players will be free agents and would be worth a look for the Reds:

Jose Lopez – Lopez can play first and third comfortably and second if or when needed. He has done so for the Cleveland Indians in 2012. He is making $800K in 2012 and will be 29 in 2013

Scott Hairston – Hairston may end up on the expensive side of bench players, as his power and versatility will be very valuable on the open market. He currently has an .840 OPS with 10 HR and 31 RBI in just 157 at bats for the New York Mets. Hairston is making $1.1 M in 2012 and has played all three outfield spots this season and some second base in his career.

Grady Sizemore – Injuries MIGHT be gone when he hits free agency after the 2012 season. Sizemore hasn’t had a healthy season since 2008. He is making $5 M in 2012 but hasn’t played in a single game. An incentive-laden contract is a necessity for Sizemore to prove his worth and as a former gold glove caliber center fielder, he can handle all three outfield positions…if healthy.

Ryan Theriot – Theriot is making $1.25 M for the San Francisco Giants while playing primarily shortstop. He played left field late in a game and has played second, short, third, and outfield in recent years.

The open rotation spot should be left to Tony Cingrani, the young left-hander out of Rice, who has dominated the minors this season to the tune of a 7-2 record, 1.47 ERA, 86 IP, 109:21 K:BB, .196 BAA, 0.95 WHIP, including a 15 strikeout, eight shutout inning outing on Wednesday night. It’s worth seeing what you have there. Alfredo Simon or Sam LeCure could fill the number five spot if the Reds don’t sign another veteran arm like: Aaron Cook, Kevin Correia, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Marquis, Joel Piniero, or Chris Young, who could all be cheap options.

It’s never too early to wonder what your team will look like in the future. Maybe Billy Hamilton moves to center and Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey becomes the team’s fourth outfielder? As the season goes on, trades could be made involving Cingrani or Hamilton to upgrade for 2012, as well. Regardless, the Reds look like an excellent team for this season and could get better by cutting some of the dead weight, namely their entire bench and Scott Rolen.

 

Home is Where the Production is

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Courtesy: marketplace.secondlife.com

Back before the humidor, the Colorado Rockies were capable of padding their stats by launching balls out of Coor’s Field through the thin air in their 81 home games. We saw Dante Bichette become a force and Mike Hampton became a pitcher who didn’t matter anymore, along with Denny Neagle. Today, there are still some hitter-friendly ballparks, but you’ll see some of the guys below taking advantage of some home field love below.

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

.405/.507/.793, 18 2B, 9 HR, 28 RBI, 4 SB, 28:24 K:BB in 116 AB at home

.331/.468/.529, 12 2B, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 26:31 K:BB in 121 AB on the road

Votto has been an absolute freak in 2012, posting an MVP-like .367/.468/.658 line. It doesn’t really matter where he is this season, the Reds new franchise player is unstoppable.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies

.382/.441/.733, 6 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 35 RBI, 5 SB, 29:13 K:BB in 131 AB at home

.288/.344/.508, 9 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 5 SB, 24:10 K:BB in 118 AB on the road

CarGo is still taking advantage of the thin air in Denver despite the humidor. He is an excellent all-around player on his own, but he may not be capable of substantial numbers without the Coor’s Field effect.

Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians

.371/.389/.743, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, 4:1 K:BB in 35 AB at home

.125/.125/.125, 0 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, 3:0 K:BB in 24 AB on the road

It is only 59 at bats, but the Indians could have the power bat that they need for the middle of their order…when they play at home. Chisenhall doesn’t turn 24 until October and he has a bright future, but he has some flaws, especially with plate discipline and left-handed pitching. But…hey, he can hit at home!

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

.350/.385/.570, 9 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 6 SB, 19:6 K:BB in 100 AB at home

.326/.409/.484, 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 13 SB, 22:13 K:BB in 95 AB on the road

Trout has been more than anyone expected since finally getting his opportunity with the Angels. You can’t call anything about his game weak, he is clearly an excellent hitter, runner, and he is a well above average outfielder, too.

Angel Pagan, OF, San Francisco Giants

.338/.389/.451, 6 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 7 SB, 20:11 K:BB in 133 AB at home

.261/.289/.410, 6 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 5 SB, 21:6 K:BB in 134 AB on the road

San Francisco’s home park is not typically thought of as a hitter’s paradise, but Pagan really thrives there. He has better power numbers and run-production on the road, but he is also not as patient. Either way, Pagan is a beast at home in 2012.

R.A. Dickey, RHP, New York Mets

6-0, 1.20 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 52.1 IP, 54:13 K:BB in 7 home starts

5-1, 2.89 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 46.2 IP, 49:8 K:BB in 7 road starts

You can’t say Dickey without smiling and the Mets wouldn’t be anywhere near the top of the NL East without the 37-year-old Cy Young front-runner.

Chris Capuano, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

5-0, 1.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 46.0 IP, 46:13 K:BB in 7 home starts

3-2, 4.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 40.1 IP, 34:18 K:BB in 7 road starts

Capuano has dominated at Dodger Stadium, but has been about as good as his career statistics outside of that. Capuano is struggling mightily in June with a 4.24 ERA…since when is that awful?…but when compared to his dominating April and May, his 1-1 record in April seems so pedestrian. Don’t jump ship on him yet!

Tom Milone, LHP, Oakland A’s

5-1, 0.99 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 45.2 IP, 19:8 K:BB in 6 home starts

2-4, 7.42 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 43.2 IP, 33:16 K:BB in 8 road starts

Milone may have the worst home-road split in baseball, but he has been fantastic at home. You have to wonder which pitcher he is and whether he will even things out by being absolutely horrible and really good…maybe even just decent when he is at home or on the road. The soft-tossing lefty is just 25, so we have time to see what he really is.

A.J. Burnett, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

4-0, 1.27 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 42.2 IP, 36:9 K:BB in 6 home starts

3-2, 7.18 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 26.1 IP, 22:15 K:BB in 5 road starts

Burnett is 6-1 with a 4.02 ERA in his last 9 starts for the Pirates, but he has a split that has rivaled Milone’s terrible home-road split. Burnett’s inconsistency is well documented in his 14 year career, and it is more of the same this season. You could argue that some of his stats would make him an asset at the trade deadline, but as teams look at his production on the road, they will be scared off.

Zack Greinke, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

4-0, 1.08 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 41.2 IP, 52:8 K:BB in 6 home starts

3-2, 4.96 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 45.1 IP, 43:12 K:BB in 8 road starts

Greinke will be a rich man when he signs this winter as a free agent. With that being said, his splits are just not very good in 2012. Clearly, Greinke is dominant at home. Maybe Greinke has some issues pitching on the road that go back to his anxiety disorder that he had earlier in his career. From 2009-2011, Greinke had a 29-8 record and a 2.99 ERA in 49 starts and a 13-20 record and 3.72 ERA on the road in 45 starts. The 2012 stats fall in line with his last 94 starts prior to this season, so he is and will be dominant at home.

Are the Reds the Best Team in MLB?

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Joey Votto has been one of the top players in MLB in 2012, posting an absurd .362/.485/.657 slash with 27 doubles, 12 home runs, 44 RBI, and a 49:52 K:BB in 213 at bats. Brandon Phillips is finally hitting, posting a .441/.472/.735 over his last eight games, with one double, three home runs, and nine RBI.  In doing so, Phillips has increased his triple-slash from .259/.314/.392 on May 24 to its current .292/.338/.454 level. With Votto still mashing and getting on base and Phillips finally hitting, are the Reds capable of being the best team in baseball over the rest of the season?

Some will argue that the Detroit Tigers have the lineup to beat due to Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  Others say that the Yankees lineup with Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixiera, Robinson Cano, and Alex Rodriguez is the greatest of them all.  Others will argue that it is Ike Davis and Jason Bay, and we will mock them ferociously; however, the Reds seem to have what it takes to win.  The rotation can be thin at times with the inconsistencies at the back-end, but look at the front-end of that group…

Johnny Cueto has established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball, compiling a 16-8 record, a 2.36 ERA, and a 1.12 WHIP over his last 37 starts.  Mat Latos may not have great stats in 2012 (5-2, 4.64 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but the Reds are 8-2 in his last ten starts. Latos is also in the middle of the season, especially from May to July, where he is now 21-6 with a 2.90 ERA over his career during the early summer months.

What does all of this mean?  The Reds were as many as five games back and they were up as many as 3.5 games.  Now, they are three games up on both the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals.  The Reds have gone 25-16 since April 15.  It’s too bad they aren’t the Chicago Cubs because they are 17-8 in day games after Thursday’s  12-5 stomping of the Cleveland Indians.

The Reds have a solid rotation and enough offense to matter.  The American League is filled with punishing offenses, but the National League has…good pitching?  With the dramatic decline of the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, the Cincinnati Reds are in an elite class in the National League.

The Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants are the only other teams in the National League with the rotation and lineups that can match the Reds.  Bryce Harper is the real deal and the Nats will, at least, ride Strasburg to the limits of his innings, not his talent.  The Dodgers have had issues with injuries in the rotation and to Matt Kemp, but they’ve managed to hold on thanks to Andre Ethier’s redemption season and Chris Capuano’s best Clayton Kershaw impersonation.  The Giants have had some success from their rotation and offense, definitely not from Tim Lincecum, though, and with the return of Pablo Sandoval from injury, they will be that much better.

However, if Votto and Phillips are clicking like they are right now and the Reds have the 1-2 punch of Cueto and Latos going, then they can sit back and hope that the likes of Zack Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake take the steps necessary to keep the team in contention while infusing youth in the every day lineup.  With smart baseball, like Mesoraco plowing into Lou Marson for defensive interference and a free run (see here), and mediocre production from the spare parts, the Reds are a team to be reckoned with.

Reds Seem Comfortable in the Two Hole

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Jeff Kent made a living hitting in front of Barry Bonds, averaging a .297/.368/.535, 29 HR, and 114 RBI line over six seasons.  Joey Votto is having the same effect this season for Cincinnati, as the player hitting directly in front of him have gone .356/.406/.576 line, as teams continue to pitch around Votto, who is tied for the Major League lead in walks with 13.

Zack Cozart is now leading off for the Reds after raking .350/.409/.575 in 40 at bats in front of Votto.  He isn’t doing well at leadoff yet, walking once but going hitless in his first 8 at bats.  Drew Stubbs moved up in the order to 2nd when Dusty Baker moved Cozart to leadoff.  He is only hitting .538/.571/.846, going 7 for his first 13 there.

Take a look at production by batting order for the Red thus far:

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K BA OBP SLG
Batting #1 14 62 5 8 1 0 0 0 3 14 .129 .169 .145
Batting #2 14 59 10 21 3 2 2 7 3 12 .356 .406 .576
Batting #3 14 49 7 14 3 0 1 8 13 14 .286 .429 .408
Batting #4 14 57 6 9 2 0 1 3 4 9 .158 .226 .246
Batting #5 14 55 7 12 3 0 3 6 4 16 .218 .262 .436
Batting #6 14 56 3 13 4 0 2 13 3 10 .232 .283 .411
Batting #7 14 52 5 13 3 2 0 4 3 9 .250 .291 .385
Batting #8 14 49 4 13 1 0 0 2 6 6 .265 .345 .286
Batting #9 14 46 1 7 1 0 0 4 1 17 .152 .167 .174

Obviously, having performed well since the recent moves, the lineup may stick for a while.  If Brandon Phillips is hitting 4th between Votto and Jay Bruce, this lineup would remain one that fans can’t complain much about.  However, if Baker continues putting Ryan Ludwick or Scott Rolen in the 4-spot, when they’ve gone a combined 4 for 42 with 1 RBI (.095), this doesn’t make sense.  The Reds need Phillips healthy and he has been hampered by a hamstring injury most of the season.  He has a .333/.333/.667 line in just 9 at bats at #4.

If Phillips isn’t playing and the Reds want production, they need to bat Votto in front of Jay Bruce at 3 and 4.  Bruce has struggled to a .229/.250/.458 line in the 5-spot without protection behind him, striking out 13 times in 48 at bats.  Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig were both left handed hitters and seemed to hit well batting back to back in the Yankees order in the late 1920’s.  I wonder if Miller Huggins and his three championships and six pennants had a book on how to put lineups together like managers today?

Not Red Hot

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The Cincinnati Reds have made big news for the last few months between their big trade for Mat Latos and the huge contracts to both Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips.  One thing they are not in the news for, to this point, is their incredible hitting.  The Reds are currently 28th in the Majors in hitting, with a team average of .191 through 9 games.  Take a look at their hit totals for the year:

10, 6, 8, 3, 4, 14, 5, 5, 2.

Keep in mind that the 14 hits they had against the Cardinals on Wednesday, they left 13 on base, and the 10 hits from Opening Day had 9 left on base.  The Reds just aren’t scoring enough runs because they can’t get any hits.  They haven’t had the easiest schedule in the world with the new-look Miami Marlins, the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals, and the improving Washington Nationals, but a 3-6 record wasn’t what fans and ownership was looking for as the team heads into win now mode.

You can’t blame Zack Cozart (.313), Joey Votto (.290), or Brandon Phillips (just 16 at bats due to injury to hamstring, .250), but just about everyone else could be labeled an issue.  Jay Bruce has 3 HR and 6 RBI with an .802 OPS, but he has 8 K’s in 34 at bats and a .235 average.  Drew Stubbs is at .147 with 12 K’s in 34 at bats, certainly not improving on his atrocious contact rate that worried the club last year.  Ryan Ludwick (.150), Ryan Hanigan (.118), and Scott Rolen (.111) round out the apparent regulars, while Devin Mesoraco (.167 in 12 at bats) and Chris Heisey (.188 in 16 at bats) continue to be youngsters losing out to the veteran loving, toothpick toting Dusty Baker.

Regardless of who is playing, it doesn’t seem to be working.  As the Reds looked to capitalize on the departure of NL Central foes Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, the long-term commitments and trades developed expectations that, to this point, they have fallen well short of.  With such dynamic talent in Votto, Phillips, and Bruce, the lineup is capable of more.  The issue could be Phillips’ absence, the fact that Dusty HAS TO split up Votto and Bruce (and has done so with Scott Rolen and Ryan Ludwick in the clean-up spot), or it could be a challenging schedule.  Expectations are high and if they keep flopping like they are, fans aren’t going to show up in Cincinnati, and if fans don’t show up, they already need to start wondering about how they are going to be paying Phillips and Votto in the coming seasons.

How to Cripple a Small Market

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I grew up in Cincinnati.  I love Eric Davis and Barry Larkin because of it.  I choose Camp Washington Chili over any other offerings, and I refuse to tell you that I graduated from Colerain High School when you ask me where I went to school because I now have a college degree.  However, there are some things that you just can’t do in Cincinnati, and signing a player for market value in a small market is one of those things.

Cincinnati isn’t Boston, New York, or Los Angeles.  It isn’t Chicago or Detroit.  It is miniscule in comparison, an afterthought to a list of cities that house a professional baseball and football team, mainly due to the fact that both have had such miserable bouts of inadequacy over the last 20 years.  The city pulls away from failures quickly, leaving the stadiums to fill up with the few morons who are willing to shell out a lot of money in a time where there just isn’t much.  Attendance has been all over the place in recent years, especially for the Bengals, but when you have 81 home dates and a payroll which now contains the 4th richest contract in Major League Baseball history.

The issue with the Reds signing Votto is this: When Ken Griffey, Jr. was making $12.5 million per season and deferring money towards his retirement, the Reds were crippled.  There is a new owner, of course, but the man sells fruit.  He has made money selling…fruit.  How much more produce needs to be consumed to make this contract reasonable?  Can the Reds really have a guy making $20-22.5 million per year and maintain a roster with Bruce, Phillips, Latos, Cueto, and Chapman?

The problem also becomes the fact that the Reds have gutted the upper levels of the minors by acquiring talent this offseason.  While the Reds wait for Billy Hamilton and his crazy speed to reach the Majors, they’ll probably have to watch Brandon Phillips walk this winter via free agency.  Do they turn to Todd Frazier, Chris Valaika, a journeyman veteran who, if he is still there, Dusty Baker would love to play way too often?  How do they replace starting pitching as it becomes too expensive?  Are the Reds going to start giving long-term deals, like the Rays did with Matt Moore or the Indians did with Grady Sizemore years ago, to save eventual costs?

This contract is a great thing for Cincinnati fans, especially the 18,000 that show up between any weekday night from May until school is out in mid-June and families return; however, Votto’s contract needs to have questions raised: What will happen when Cueto, Chapman, and Leake reach arbitration or free agency?  How will you replace guys you can’t afford when you’re paying one guy 25% of your budgeted payroll?  How is this contract going to look if Votto ages like Scott Rolen or becomes a shell of himself in his age 37-39 seasons?

Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Basemen

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Below you’ll find the rankings for 1B for the 2012 season.  You’ll see 2012 projections in italics. 

1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 

.344/.448/.586, 48 2B, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 2 SB in 572 AB

.327/.431/.596, 49 2B, 37 HR, 121 RBI, 1 SB in 579 AB

How can one of the best hitters in baseball get even better?  Adding Prince Fielder to the lineup.  The Tigers are going to need run production with Cabrera playing some 3B, as their defense may become as ugly as the Patriots secondary.

2. Albert Pujols, Angels

.299/.366/.541, 29 2B, 37 HR, 99 RBI, 9 SB in 579 AB

.313/.389/.563, 36 2B, 34 HR, 112 RBI, 5 SB in 599 AB

Pujols had a “down” year in 2011.  If only everyone could look so good when they’re so “bad.”  He’ll rebound with health, and he’ll maintain that health with the ability to DH on occasion.  His lineup is filled with vets, but it shouldn’t hold him back THIS YEAR.  I still don’t think he’s going to be worth the contract by 2015 or 2016…ARod style.

3. Prince Fielder, Tigers

.299/.415/.566, 36 2B, 38 HR, 120 RBI, 1 SB in 569 AB

.315/.426/.588, 43 2B, 35 HR, 119 RBI, 1 SB in 559 AB

Prince isn’t losing anything by moving away from Ryan Braun’s protection with Miguel Cabrera filling that role nicely.  He immediately makes Detroit a contender with his arrival, especially since they were already there before he got there.  Scary good with the Comerica Park gaps.

4. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox

.338/.410/.548, 45 2B, 27 HR, 117 RBI, 1 SB in 630 AB

.327/.422/.553, 39 2B, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 1 SB in 614 AB

Gonzalez will have a full season of a not-God-awful Carl Crawford to drive in, and he’ll be comfortable in Fenway to start the year, so he won’t lose a month of power like he did at the start of 2011.

5. Joey Votto, Reds

.309/.416/.531, 40 2B, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 8 SB in 599 AB

.329/.426/.569, 36 2B, 38 HR, 106 RBI, 6 SB in 587 AB

Votto is a very patient hitter in a lineup that lacks patience.  He’ll take pitches and lose RBI’s due to guys not getting on around him, and walking about the same number of times that he strikes out.  He’s going to step up his production as he heads towards Free Agency after 2013, developing a market for himself early.  He’s in a great ballpark, Great American to be exact, to make it happen.

6. Eric Hosmer, Royals

.293/.334/.465, 27 2B, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 11 SB in 523 AB

.287/.362/.501, 31 2B, 26 HR, 89 RBI, 14 SB in 598 AB

Hosmer had a strong rookie season and is only going to get better.  2012 will be the first signs of what he is capable of, but his numbers will continue to climb from here.  He has power and is athletic enough to continue stealing bases.  He could eventually become a Ryan Braun clone at 1B, with fewer stolen bases.  I have him high on the list because he showed what he is capable of in the 2nd half of 2011.

7. Mark Teixeira, Yankees 

.248/.341/.494, 26 2B, 39 HR, 111 RBI, 4 SB in 589 AB

.253/.339/.513, 28 SB, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 2 SB in 594 AB

Teixeira’s AVG and SLG have fallen significantly in the last several seasons, and his high strikeout rate suddenly screams that he is on the decline, as he can’t keep up with fastballs like he used to.  With that being said, he is still mashing.  I have a slight bounceback coming, but he isn’t capable of the high averages and power like he used to be.

8. Michael Young, Rangers 

.338/.380/.474, 41 2B, 6 3B, 11 HR, 106 RBI, 6 SB in 631 AB

.318/.372/.468, 37 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 97 RBI, 5 SB in 639 AB

Young just keeps hitting.  He led the league in hits last year and continues showing the ability to be versatile, which has a lot of value in various fantasy formats.  Look for more of the same with a solid lineup around him, even as he continues aging.  He showed no signs of breaking down last year.

9. Freddie Freeman, Braves 

.282/.346/.448, 32 2B, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 4 SB in 571 AB

.294/.357/.467, 34 2B, 25 HR, 82 RBI, 3 SB in 584 AB

With a name this bad, you’d think there was no way that he would be a successful baseball player.  Maybe a plumber or sales guy…however, Freeman is very young and is a polished hitter.  He’s hitting better than previous super-prospect Jason Heyward  has to this point, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he continues to do so in coming years.  He may never hit 30-35 homers per season, but he will do more than enough to be an asset in fantasy and for the Braves.

10. Michael Morse, Nationals

.303/.360/.550, 36 2B, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 2 SB in 522 AB

.286/.342/.549, 34 2B, 33 HR, 107 RBI, 1 SB in 571 AB

Morse came out of nowhere, kind of, to post very valuable fantasy numbers in 2011.  He has tremendous power and a long swing, which still will make his susceptible to slumps and strikeouts.  The Nationals are improving around him, though, so he should continue to build value.  He will ultimately be a first baseman, but he will patrol left field to open the season.  He could move to first if or when Adam LaRoche’s next injury strikes, but he’ll certainly be there by 2013 for good. 

11. Billy Butler, Royals 

.291/.361/.461, 44 2B, 19 HR, 95 RBI, 2 SB in 597 AB

.314/.379/.501, 41 2B, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 1 SB in 599 AB

12. Ike Davis, Mets 

.302/.383/.543, 8 2B, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB in 129 AB

.291/.372/.538, 32 2B, 28 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB in 586 AB

Davis was headed towards a breakout prior to the ankle injury that he suffered in 2011.  Imagine the capabilities in an offense that is relying heavily on him, especially after the fences were moved in.  This is the year.

13. Lance Berkman, Cardinals 

.301/.412/.547, 23 2B, 31 HR, 94 RBI, 2 SB in 488 AB

.283/.394/.527, 21 2B, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 1 SB in 506 AB

He won’t hit as well with added pressure to perform, but he should maintain health by moving to first.  He’s aging, even if he posted a solid season for what seems like the first time in years in 2011, so don’t think he is going to get a whole lot better than last year.

14. Ryan Howard, Phillies 

.253/.346/.488, 30 2B, 33 HR, 116 RBI, 1 SB in 557 AB

.247/.339/.479, 23 2B, 26 HR, 82 RBI, 0 SB in 486 AB

Decline City.  Major injury + drops in OPS over the last few years = the NL version of Teixeira with a whole lot less to offer.  Howard will miss the first month, but he’ll still post solid power numbers.  He isn’t a top of the line bat anymore, and he and his teammates are aging quicker than Benjamin Button, only the opposite way.

15. Paul Konerko, White Sox 

.300/.388/.517, 25 2B, 31 HR, 105 RBI, 1 SB in 543 AB

.309/.392/.524, 28 2B, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 1 SB in 564 AB

There’s no way that Konerko can’t be better in 2011 because Alex Rios, Adam Dunn, and Gordon Beckham will be better around him.  He’ll drive in more runs and see more pitches.

16. Mark Reynolds, Orioles

.221/.323/.483, 27 2B, 37 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB in 534 AB

.232/.331/.489, 26 2B, 39 HR, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 541 AB

17. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks 

.250/.333/.474, 9 2B, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 4 SB in 156 AB

.259/.341/.510, 28 2B, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 7 SB in 533 AB

18. Yonder Alonso, Padres

.330/.398/.545, 4 2B, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB in 88 AB

.309/.389/.508, 36 2B, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 1 SB in 531 AB

19. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins

.266/.352/.427, 35 2B, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 3 SB in 572 AB

.271/.354/.449, 37 2B, 18 HR, 83 RBI, 2 SB in 576 AB

20. Michael Cuddyer, Rockies 

.284/.346/.459, 29 2B, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB in 529 AB

.279/.339/.453, 31 2B, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 8 SB in 559 AB

21. Carlos Lee, Astros

.275/.342/.446, 38 2B, 18 HR, 94 RBI, 4 SB in 585 AB

.271/.341/.439, 36 2B, 21 HR, 89 RBI, 2 SB in 591 AB

22. Justin Morneau, Twins

.227/.285/.333, 16 2B, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 0 SB in 264 AB

.264/.326/.411, 21 2B, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 0 SB in 403 AB

If he stays on the field, he’s still going to have to adjust and be consistent.  Chris Parmelee may be the best Twins first baseman to own going forward.

23. Justin Smoak, Mariners

.234/.323/.396, 24 2B, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 0 SB in 427 AB

.271/.359/.489, 31 2B, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 1 SB in 568 AB

This is the year, guys!  Smoak stays healthy, has help with Montero coming over, and he develops.  He’s still just 25!

24. Aubrey Huff, Giants

.246/.306/.370, 27 2B, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 5 SB in 521 AB

.261/.326/.409, 31 2B, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB in 535 AB

25. Carlos Pena, Rays

.225/.357/.462, 27 2B, 28 HR, 80 RBI, 2 SB in 493 AB

.231/.379/.491, 26 2B, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB in 519 AB

26. James Loney, Dodgers

.288/.339/.416, 30 2B, 12 HR, 65 RBI, 4 SB in 531 AB

.281/.341/.421, 34 2B, 14 HR, 70 RBI, 3 SB 546 AB

27. Casey Kotchman, Indians

.306/.378/.422, 24 2B, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB in 500 AB

.311/.386/.441, 31 2B, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 1 SB in 562 AB

28. Adam Lind, Blue Jays

.251/.295/.439, 16 2B, 26 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB in 499 AB

.255/.310/.441, 18 2B, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 1 SB in 512 AB

29. Mitch Moreland, Rangers

.259/.320/.414, 22 2B, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 2 SB in 464 AB

.265/.329/426, 29 2B, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 3 SB in 520 AB

30. Todd Helton, Rockies

.302/.385/.466, 27 2B, 14 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB in 421 AB

.294/.376/.459, 24 2B, 13 HR, 67 RBI, 0 SB in 432 AB